// Simulates whole rest of season

// (version before game-by-game version)

// Todo: tidy up local vs global pa[]

// and in general, tidy up globals

// Make adjustments work for any year

// (have a better way of storing all stuff for past years, including parsers)

#include <stdio.h>

#include <stdlib.h>

#include <string.h>

#include <unistd.h>

#include <assert.h>

#include <time.h>

#include <ctype.h>

#include <math.h>

#define EXPMODEL

#define MIN(x,y) ((x)<(y)?(x):(y))

#define MAX(x,y) ((x)>(y)?(x):(y))

#define MAXNAMES 1000 // Max number of team name (equiv classes)

#define MAXNEQ 100 // Max number of equiv team names

int neqn;// Number of equiv names

char *(eqname[MAXNAMES][MAXNEQ+1]);

char *nonsp(char *p){while(*p&&isspace(*p))p++;return p;}

char *getsp(char *p){while(*p&&!isspace(*p))p++;return p;}

char *col(int n,char *p){p=nonsp(p);while(n>0){p=nonsp(getsp(p));n--;}return p;}

#define PI (3.1415926535897932384)

#define NUML 5 // Number of leagues

#define MAXP 14 // 1+Max no. of properties

#define MAXREL 10 // Maximum number of teams, of which the probability of relegation for all

// possible subsets is calculated.

int prop[NUML][MAXP]={

{300,350,400,500,550,600,1,2,3,4,6,-203,-1,0},

{300,350,400,500,550,600,1,2,6,102,-203,-1,0},

{300,350,400,500,550,600,1,2,6,102,-204,-1,0},

{300,350,400,500,550,600,1,3,7,103,-202,-1,0},

{300,350,400,500,550,600,1,5,101,-203,-1,0}

};

// n means top n

// -n means bottom n

// 100+n means top n + playoff(n+1,...,n+4) for promotion

// -200-n means bottom n for relegation

// 0 means termination

// 300 means luck points \ These are guaranteed to be in first

// 350 means sd(luck points) | six positions, for convenience.

// 400 means luck GD |

// 500 means expected points |

// 550 means sd(points) |

// 600 means expected GD /

// These points will turn into a spread index if the spread-index flag (sprind) is set

#define NUMSPR 6

int sprind1[NUMSPR]={60,40,30,20,10,5};

// Special adjustments

typedef struct {int d;char *t;int a;char *dt;} adjsdat; // Score adjustments (point deduction - relatively common)

typedef struct {int d;char *t0,*t1;int s0,s1;char *dt;} adjrdat; // Extra results \ Very rare - used to make 2009-10

typedef struct {char *t,*dt;} adjedat; // Excluded teams / work mid-season

typedef struct {

int y;// year

adjsdat *s;// See above

adjrdat *r;// for

adjedat *e;// description

char *(mdt[NUML]); // Last match date for each league

// Note that r,e are only likely to be used to overcome

// deficiencies in the current year's results-scrape-site and probably

// will not be needed in (cleaned) past years' results.

// mdt mainly useful to prevent play-off results being counted as league results

// (if a results parser didn't manage to exclude play-off results)

} adjalldat;

adjalldat adjall[]={

{2003,

(adjsdat[]){{4,"Burton_Albion",-1,"2003-11-26"},{0}},

0,

0,

{"9999-12-31","9999-12-31","9999-12-31","9999-12-31","9999-12-31"}},

{2004,

(adjsdat[]){{2,"Wrexham",-10},{3,"Cambridge_Utd",-10,"2005-04-29"},{4,"Tamworth",-3},{4,"Northwich",-10},{0}},

0,

0,

{"9999-12-31","9999-12-31","9999-12-31","9999-12-31","9999-12-31"}},

{2005,

(adjsdat[]){{4,"Altrincham",-18},{0}},

0,

0,

{"9999-12-31","9999-12-31","9999-12-31","9999-12-31","9999-12-31"}},

{2006,

(adjsdat[]){{2,"Rotherham",-10},{4,"Crawley_Town",-10},{1,"Leeds_United",-10},{0}},

0,

0,

{"2007-05-13","2007-05-06","2007-05-05","2007-05-05","2007-04-28"}},

{2007,

(adjsdat[]){{2,"Leeds_United",-15},{2,"Luton",-10},{2,"Bournemouth",-10},{3,"Rotherham",-10},

{4,"Halifax",-10},{4,"Crawley_Town",-6},{0}},

0,

0,

{"2008-05-11","2008-05-04","2008-05-03","2008-05-03","2008-04-26"}},

{2008,

(adjsdat[]){

{1,"Southampton",-10,"2009-04-23"},{2,"Stockport",-10},

{3,"Rotherham",-17,0},{3,"Bournemouth",-17,0},{3,"Luton",-30,0},{3,"Darlington",-10,"2009-02-28"},

{4,"Oxford_Utd",-5,0},{4,"Mansfield",-4,0},{4,"Crawley_Town",-1},{0}},

// Southampton receiving the penalty in _this season_ was contingent on them finishing

// above the relegation zone, which they didn't in fact do. But for the purposes of

// relegation odds, it is better to pretend that they did receive the penalty in 2008-09.

0,

0,

{"2009-05-24","2009-05-03","2009-05-02","2009-05-02","2009-04-26"}},

{2009,

(adjsdat[]){

{0,"Portsmouth",-9,"2010-03-17"},{2,"Southampton",-10,"2009-06-01"},{4,"Salisbury",-10},

{4,"Gateshead",-1},{1,"Crystal_Palace",-10},{0}},

// Chester expelled from div=4 on 2010-03-08: still three others to be relegated

// Nightmare to try to look at relegation betting for div4. In fact Forest Green got

// a reprieve due to Salisbury getting kicked out in June for some infringement. How

// long did people know this was on the cards? What did the bookies pay out on?

0,

0,

{"2010-05-09","2010-05-02","2010-05-08","2010-05-08","2010-04-24"}},

{2010,

(adjsdat[]){

{2,"Plymouth",-10,"2011-02-21"},

{4,"Histon",-5,"2011-01-07"},

{4,"Kidderminster",-5,"2011-01-07"},

{0}},

0,

0,

{"2011-05-22","2011-05-08","2011-05-07","2011-05-07","2011-04-30"}},

{2011,

(adjsdat[]){

{1,"Portsmouth",-10,"2012-02-17"},

{3,"Port_Vale",-10,"2012-03-06"},

{4,"Darlington",-10,"2012-01-03"},

{4,"Kettering",-3,"2012-02-29"},

{0}},

0,

0,

{"2012-05-13","2012-04-28","2012-05-05","2012-05-05","2012-04-20"}},

{2012,

(adjsdat[]){{0}},

0,

0,

{"2013-05-19","2013-05-04","2013-04-27","2013-04-27","2013-04-21"}},

{2013,

(adjsdat[]){

{2,"Coventry",-10,"2013-08-02"},

{4,"Aldershot",-10,"2013-06-08"},

{0}},

0,

0,

{"2014-05-12","2014-05-04","2014-05-04","2014-05-04","2014-04-27"}},

{2014,

(adjsdat[]){

{0}},

0,

0,

{"2015-05-25","2015-05-03","2015-05-04","2015-05-03","2015-04-27"}},

{2015,

(adjsdat[]){

{0}},

0,

0,

{"2016-05-16","2016-05-08","2016-05-09","2016-05-08","2016-05-01"}},

{0,// Special terminating entry that creates no adjustments

(adjsdat[]){{0}},

0,

0,

{"9999-12-31","9999-12-31","9999-12-31","9999-12-31","9999-12-31"}}

};

adjalldat *aa;

/*

Old adjustments

2009-10

struct {int d;char *t0,*t1;int s0,s1;char *dt;} adjr[NUMRA]={

{4,"Gateshead","Hayes_&_Yeading",0,0,"2009-09-05"}

};

#define NUMET 1 // Number of excluded teams

char *(exclt[NUMET])={"Chester"};

char *(maxdt[NUML])={"2010-05-09","2010-05-02","2010-05-08","2010-05-08","2010-04-24"};

*/

double drnd(){return (random()+.5)/(RAND_MAX+1.0);}

unsigned int secs(char *s){

// This does what strptime should do, but strptime doesn't properly exist

// E.g., "2003-11-19" --> seconds since 1970

unsigned int m,y;

unsigned int mm[12]={0,31,59,90,120,151,181,212,243,273,304,334};

y=atoi(s);if(y<1970||y>2106)return 0;

m=atoi(s+5)-1;

return ((y-1970)*365+(y-1969)/4+mm[m]+(m>=2&&(y&3)==0)+atoi(s+8)-1)*24*60*60;

}

int update,ln,maxit,steps,year,useres,rel,sprind,dohtml,eval,prl;

char datadir[1000],divname[1000],cutofftime[100];

struct tm now;// Program start time in GMT

double acc,rej;

double trialsd=0.04;

void getname(int year,int div,char *divname){

char *(dn0[5])={"Premiership","Division 1","Division 2","Division 3","Conference"};

char *(dn1[5])={"Premiership","Championship","League 1","League 2","Conference"};

char *(dn2[5])={"Premier League","Championship","League 1","League 2","Conference"};

if(year<2004)strcpy(divname,dn0[div]); else

if(year<2007)strcpy(divname,dn1[div]); else

strcpy(divname,dn2[div]);

}

void initargs(int ac,char **av){

int i,seed;

char *l,*date;

time_t t0;

struct tm tm;

FILE *fp;

t0=time(NULL);seed=8716283*t0+81123871*getpid()+7128973;

update=0;ln=-1;maxit=20000;steps=10;date=0;useres=99999;rel=0;

sprind=0;dohtml=0;eval=0;prl=1;

for(i=1;i<ac;i++)if((strlen(av[i])>=4&&strncmp(av[i]+strlen(av[i])-4,"help",4)==0)

||strncmp(av[i],"?",1)==0){

printf("Help message\n");exit(0);

}

for(i=1;i<ac;i++){

int nn,rr;

char *l0;

l=av[i];l0=strchr(l,'=');

if(l0){

l0++;rr=l0-l;nn=atoi(l0);

if(!strncmp(l,"update=",rr)){update=nn;continue;}

if(!strncmp(l,"div=",rr)){ln=nn;continue;}// league number 0-4 or -1 for all

if(!strncmp(l,"eval=",rr)){eval=nn;continue;}// eval mode

if(!strncmp(l,"maxit=",rr)){maxit=nn;continue;}

if(!strncmp(l,"steps=",rr)){steps=nn;continue;}

if(!strncmp(l,"seed=",rr)){seed=nn;continue;}

if(!strncmp(l,"sprind=",rr)){sprind=nn;continue;}

if(!strncmp(l,"prl=",rr)){prl=nn;continue;}//print level

if(!strncmp(l,"dohtml=",rr)){dohtml=nn;continue;}

if(!strncmp(l,"useres=",rr)){useres=nn;continue;}

if(!strncmp(l,"date=",rr)){date=strdup(l0);continue;}

// ^ Either (i) omitted, (ii) a specific YYYY-MM-DD date,

// or (iii) a year (e.g., 2006 represents the 2006-07 season)

if(!strncmp(l,"rel=",rr)){rel=nn;continue;}// Work out probabilities of subsets of 'rel' from the bottom

fprintf(stderr,"Can't parse argument \"%s\"\n",l);exit(1);

}

}

if(rel>MAXREL){fprintf(stderr,"rel too large. MAXREL=%d\n",MAXREL);exit(1);}

fp=fopen("logfile","a");if(fp==0){printf("Couldn't open log file\n");exit(0);}

l=ctime(&t0);for(i=0;l[i];i++)if(l[i]!='\n')fprintf(fp,"%c",l[i]);

fprintf(fp," seed=%d pid=%d : ",seed,getpid());

for(i=0;i<ac;i++)fprintf(fp,"%s ",av[i]);fprintf(fp,"\n");fclose(fp);

localtime_r(&t0,&tm);

strcpy(cutofftime,"9999-12-31");

if(date==0)year=tm.tm_year+1900-(tm.tm_mon<7); // Date not specified

else if(strlen(date)==4)year=atoi(date); // E.g., "2006" for 2006-07 season

else {year=atoi(date)-(atoi(date+5)<7);strcpy(cutofftime,date);} // E.g., "2007-01-23" for 2006-07 season up to 2007-01-23T23:59:59

// or "2007-01-23T12:34:56" for 2006-07 season up to 2007-01-23T12:34:56

if(strlen(cutofftime)==10)strcat(cutofftime,"T23:59:59");

printf("Season %d-%d, taking matches up to %s\n",year,year+1,cutofftime);

srandom(seed);srand48(seed);

}

#define MAXNT 100 // Maximum number of teams in any particular league

#define MAXTL 100 // 1+Maximum length of team description string

#define MAXNM 10000 // Maximum number of matches (rounds)

#define MAXS 100 // 1+Maximum number of goals scored

int nr,nt,np,res[MAXNM][5],maxtl,rels[1<<MAXREL];

long long int stat[MAXP][MAXNT];

double odds[MAXNM][3];// NCU

char tm[MAXNT][MAXTL];

int last;

double lfac[MAXS];

double phg[MAXS],pag[MAXS];

int rell[MAXNT]; // List of teams in the relegation set

int relm[MAXNT]; // Left inverse to rell[] (returns -1 if team is not in rel. set)

double relp[MAXNT];

void loadequivnames(){

int n,s,t;

FILE *fp;

char l[10000],*l1,*l2;

fp=fopen("equivnames","r");

t=0;

while(fgets(l,10000,fp)){

assert(t<MAXNAMES);

s=strlen(l);assert(s>0);l[s-1]=' ';

n=0;l1=l;

while(1){

l2=strchr(l1,' ');if(!l2)break;

assert(l2-l1<MAXTL);assert(n<MAXNEQ);

l2[0]=0;eqname[t][n]=strdup(l1);

n++;l1=l2+1;

}

eqname[t][n]=0;

t++;

}

neqn=t;

}

char *eqnormalise(char *s){

int i,j;

for(i=0;i<neqn;i++)

for(j=0;eqname[i][j];j++)

if(strcmp(s,eqname[i][j])==0)return eqname[i][0];

fprintf(stderr,"Team %s not found in equiv name list\n",s);exit(1);

}

int s2n(char *s,int add){// 'add' = whether to add in new names

int i,sl;

char l0[MAXTL],*l1;

strcpy(l0,s);

while(1){

l1=strstr(l0,"&amp;");if(!l1)break;

memmove(l1+1,l1+5,strlen(l1+5)+1);

}

while(1){

l1=strchr(l0,' ');if(!l1)break;

l1[0]='_';

}

l1=eqnormalise(l0);

if(aa->e)for(i=0;aa->e[i].t;i++)if(strcmp(cutofftime,aa->e[i].dt)>=0&&strcmp(l1,aa->e[i].t)==0)return -1;

// ^ check excluded list: reject if excluded by the specified date

for(i=0;i<nt;i++)if(strcmp(l1,tm[i])==0)return i;

if(!add)return -1;

assert(nt<MAXNT);

sl=strlen(l1);assert(sl<MAXTL);if(sl>maxtl)maxtl=sl;

strcpy(tm[i],l1);

nt++;return i;

}

#ifdef EXPMODEL

double fn(double x){return exp(x);}

double fn1(double x){return exp(x);}// fn'(x)

double fn2(double x){return exp(x);}// fn''(x) (Currently unused)

#else

double fn(double x){return x+2;}

double fn1(double x){return 1;}// fn'(x)

double fn2(double x){return 0;}// fn''(x)

#endif

/*

double fn(double x){return 3.5*exp(x)/(exp(x)+1);}

double fn1(double x){return 3.5*exp(x)/((exp(x)+1)*(exp(x)+1));}// fn'(x)

double fn2(double x){return 0;}// fn''(x)

*/

double poff[NUML]={ 1.6, 1.2, .9, .6, 0.2 };// strength offsets for each division

double ppa[2*MAXNT+2],ppaiv[2*MAXNT+2];// iv = inverse variance

double pa[2*MAXNT+2],*al,*be,*hh;

int it,pg[MAXNT],sc[MAXNT],scu[MAXNT],gd[MAXNT],gdu[MAXNT],gs[MAXNT];

double prior(double *lpa,double *L1){

int t;

double x,A,B,C,w1,w2,L,s2,det;

// Ignore constant terms .5*log(ppaiv[t]/(2*PI)) etc to make it easier to use ppaiv[t]=0

// This will make information printing ("bits") a little out

for(t=0,s2=0;t<2*nt+2;t++)s2+=ppaiv[t]*pow(lpa[t]-ppa[t],2);

x=ppaiv[2*nt]*(lpa[2*nt]-ppa[2*nt])-ppaiv[2*nt+1]*(lpa[2*nt+1]-ppa[2*nt+1]);

for(t=0,w1=-x;t<nt;t++)w1+=ppaiv[t]*(lpa[t]-ppa[t]);

for(t=nt,w2=x;t<2*nt;t++)w2+=ppaiv[t]*(lpa[t]-ppa[t]);

B=ppaiv[2*nt]+ppaiv[2*nt+1];

for(t=0,A=B;t<nt;t++)A+=ppaiv[t];

for(t=nt,C=B;t<2*nt;t++)C+=ppaiv[t];

det=A*C-B*B;

L=-.5*(s2-(C*w1*w1+2*B*w1*w2+A*w2*w2)/det);

if(L1){

for(t=0;t<2*nt+2;t++)L1[t]=-ppaiv[t]*(lpa[t]-ppa[t]);

for(t=0;t<nt;t++)L1[t]+=(C*ppaiv[t]*w1+B*ppaiv[t]*w2)/det;

for(t=nt;t<2*nt;t++)L1[t]+=(A*ppaiv[t]*w2+B*ppaiv[t]*w1)/det;

L1[2*nt]+=(-C*w1+B*(w1-w2)+A*w2)*ppaiv[2*nt]/det;

L1[2*nt+1]+=(C*w1+B*(w2-w1)-A*w2)*ppaiv[2*nt+1]/det;

}

return L;

}

double getL(double *L1){

int a,b,c,d,i,r;

double L,la,la1,mu,mu1,d1,d2;

L=prior(pa,L1);

for(r=0;r<nr;r++){

a=res[r][0];b=res[r][1];c=res[r][2];d=res[r][3];

la=fn(al[a]-be[b]+hh[0]);

la1=fn1(al[a]-be[b]+hh[0]);

//la2=fn2(al[a]-be[b]+hh[0]);

mu=fn(al[b]-be[a]-hh[1]);

mu1=fn1(al[b]-be[a]-hh[1]);

//mu2=fn2(al[b]-be[a]-hh[1]);

L+=-la+c*log(la)-lfac[c]-mu+d*log(mu)-lfac[d];

//L+=-log(phg[c])-log(pag[d]);

//if(it==5000)printf("%12g --> %d\n%12 --> %d\n",la,c,mu,d);

L1[a]+=(-1+c/la)*la1;

L1[b]+=(-1+d/mu)*mu1;

L1[nt+a]-=(-1+d/mu)*mu1;

L1[nt+b]-=(-1+c/la)*la1;

L1[2*nt]+=(-1+c/la)*la1;

L1[2*nt+1]-=(-1+d/mu)*mu1;

}

d1=d2=0;

for(i=0;i<nt;i++){d1+=L1[i];d2+=L1[nt+i];}

for(i=0;i<nt;i++){L1[i]-=d1/nt;L1[nt+i]-=d2/nt;}

return L;

}

/*

// Derivative test (need to take eps=0)

for(i=0;i<np;i++)pa[i]=drnd()-.5;

L=getL(L1);

for(i=0;i<np;i++)tt[i]=L1[i];

for(i=0;i<np;i++){

pa[i]+=del;x=getL(L1);

pa[i]-=2*del;x-=getL(L1);

pa[i]+=del;

x/=2*del;

printf("%12g %12g\n",tt[i],x);

}

exit(0);

*/

double getL0(double *pa){

int a,b,c,d,r;

double L,la,mu,*al,*be,*hh;

al=pa;be=pa+nt;hh=pa+2*nt;

L=prior(pa,0);

for(r=0;r<nr;r++){

a=res[r][0];b=res[r][1];c=res[r][2];d=res[r][3];

la=fn(al[a]-be[b]+hh[0]);

mu=fn(al[b]-be[a]-hh[1]);

L+=-la+c*log(la)-lfac[c]-mu+d*log(mu)-lfac[d];

}

return L;

}

void prparams(double *pa){

int i;

double L,*al,*be,*hh;

al=pa;be=pa+nt;hh=pa+2*nt;

L=getL0(pa);

printf("\nit %d\nL %10g bits L/nr %10g bits\n",it,L/log(2),L/log(2)/nr);

for(i=0;i<nt;i++)printf("%-*s %12g %12g\n",maxtl,tm[i],al[i],be[i]);

printf("%12g\n%12g\n",hh[0],hh[1]);

}

void opt(void){// Find MLE

int i,end;

double x,del,L,L1[np];

for(i=0;i<np;i++)pa[i]=0;

del=1e-3;

it=0;end=0;

while(1){

L=getL(L1);

for(i=0,x=0;i<np;i++)x+=L1[i]*L1[i];x=sqrt(x/np);

if(end||it%1000==0){

printf("\nit %d of MLE-finding\nL %10g bits L/nr %10g bits\n",it,L/log(2),L/log(2)/nr);

for(i=0;i<nt;i++)printf("%-*s %12g %12g %12g %12g\n",maxtl,tm[i],al[i],be[i],L1[i],L1[nt+i]);

printf("%12g %12g\n%12g %12g\n",hh[0],L1[2*nt],hh[1],L1[2*nt+1]);

}

if(end)break;

if(x<1e-9||it==50000)end=1;

for(i=0;i<np;i++)pa[i]+=del*L1[i];// pa+=delta*L' = crude gradient descent

it++;

}

}

double norm(void){

static int s=0;

static double r,th;

if(s==0){

r=sqrt(-2*log(drnd()));th=2*PI*drnd();

s=1;

return r*cos(th);

}

s=0;

return r*sin(th);

}

int getpois(double la){

int i;

double x,y;

if(la>500){

//printf("%g ",la);fflush(stdout);

i=floor(norm()*sqrt(la)+la+.5);if(i<0)i=0;

return i;

}

x=drnd()-1e-10;

y=exp(-la);

i=0;while(1){

x-=y;if(x<0)return i;

i++;

y*=la/i;

}

}

void getsc(int *h,int *a,int i,int j){// Simulate team i vs team j, putting results in *h, *a

double la,mu;

la=fn(al[i]-be[j]+hh[0]);

mu=fn(al[j]-be[i]-hh[1]);

*h=getpois(la);

*a=getpois(mu);

}

int semi(int t0,int t1){

int i,s0,s1,x0,x1;

double la,mu;

getsc(&s1,&s0,t1,t0);// Two legs. Lower placed team is home first

getsc(&x0,&x1,t0,t1);// (which affects silver goal)

s0+=x0;s1+=x1;

if(s0>s1)return t0;

if(s0<s1)return t1;

la=fn(al[t0]-be[t1]+hh[0])*15/90.;// Silver goal : two periods of 15 minutes

mu=fn(al[t1]-be[t0]-hh[1])*15/90.;

for(i=0;i<2;i++){

s0=getpois(la);s1=getpois(mu);

if(s0>s1)return t0;

if(s0<s1)return t1;

}

// Still tied - penalty shoot out. Assume random.

if(drnd()<.5)return t0; else return t1;

}

int final(int t0,int t1){

int i,s0,s1;

double ha,la,mu;

ha=(hh[0]-hh[1])/2;// Single leg played on neutral ground

la=fn(al[t0]-be[t1]+ha);

mu=fn(al[t1]-be[t0]+ha);

for(i=0;i<3;i++){// 90 mins + Silver goal = two periods of 15 minutes

s0=getpois(la);s1=getpois(mu);

if(s0>s1)return t0;

if(s0<s1)return t1;

if(i==0){

la*=15/90.;mu*=15/90.;

}

}

// Still tied - penalty shoot out. Assume random.

if(drnd()<.5)return t0; else return t1;

}

int playoff(int a,int b,int c,int d){

return final(semi(a,d),semi(b,c));

}

char *descp(int p){// not re-entrant (only use once at a time)

static char l[100];

if(p==300)return "Points"; //

if(p==350)return "%(pts)"; // Luck

if(p==400)return "GD"; //

if(p==500)return sprind?"Index":"Points"; //

if(p==550)return sprind?"sd(ind)":"sd(pts)"; // Expected

if(p==600)return "GD"; //

if(p>0&&p<100){sprintf(l,"Top%d",p);return l;}

if(p<0&&p>-100){sprintf(l,"Bot%d",-p);return l;}

if(p>100&&p<200){sprintf(l,"%d+[%d-%d]",p-100,p-99,p-96);return l;}

if(p<-200&&p>-300){sprintf(l,"Bot%d",-200-p);return l;}

fprintf(stderr,"Unrecognised property %d\n",p);exit(1);

return 0;

}

void getnewparams(void){

int i,j;

double x,ml,nl,pa1[2*MAXNT+2];

if(steps==0)return;

ml=getL0(pa);

for(i=0;i<steps;i++){

for(j=0;j<2*nt+2;j++)pa1[j]=pa[j]+trialsd*norm();

for(j=0,x=0;j<nt;j++)x+=pa1[j];x/=nt;for(j=0;j<nt;j++)pa1[j]-=x;

for(j=0,x=0;j<nt;j++)x+=pa1[nt+j];x/=nt;for(j=0;j<nt;j++)pa1[nt+j]-=x;

nl=getL0(pa1);

//for(j=0,x=0;j<2*nt+2;j++)x+=(pa1[j]-pa[j])*(pa1[j]-pa[j]);

//-x/(2*trialsd*trialsd)-(2*nt+2)*log(trialsd*sqrt(2*PI))

if(drnd()<exp(nl-ml)){

memcpy(pa,pa1,(2*nt+2)*sizeof(double));

ml=nl;

acc++;

//if(it==9511){printf("Step %d\n",i);prparams(pa);}

}else rej++;

}

}

double pt[MAXNT];

int cmp(const void*x,const void*y){

double z;

z=pt[*((int*)y)]-pt[*((int*)x)];

return (z>0?1:(z<0?-1:0));

}

int cmps(const void*x,const void*y){

int a,b,d;

a=*((int*)y);b=*((int*)x);

d=sc[a]-sc[b];if(d!=0)return d;

d=gd[a]-gd[b];if(d!=0)return d;

d=gs[a]-gs[b];if(d!=0)return d;

return strcmp(tm[b],tm[a]);

}

int cmpres(const void*x,const void*y){// compares results by date

int *a,*b;

a=*((int(*)[5])x);b=*((int(*)[5])y);

return a[4]-b[4];

}

#define SGN(x) ((x)>0?1:((x)<0?-1:0))

void checkres(void){

int i,j,r,t0,t1,ind[nt][nt];

for(i=0;i<nt;i++)for(j=0;j<nt;j++)ind[i][j]=-1;

for(r=0;r<nr;r++){

t0=res[r][0];t1=res[r][1];

i=ind[t0][t1];

if(i>=0){

if(res[r][2]==res[i][2]&&res[r][3]==res[i][3]&&res[r][4]==res[i][4]){

fprintf(stderr,"Warning: %s vs %s listed twice (same result)\n",tm[t0],tm[t1]);

memmove(res[r],res[r+1],(nr-1-r)*5*sizeof(int));

r--;nr--;

}else{

fprintf(stderr,"Error: %s vs %s listed twice (different result)\n",tm[t0],tm[t1]);

exit(1);

}

}else ind[t0][t1]=r;

}

}

void sim(int cl){

int a,c,h,i,j,k,n,p,r,t,fl,pl[nt][nt],ord[nt],sc0[nt],sc1[nt],gd0[nt],gd1[nt],gs1[nt];

char l[100];

double x,y;

FILE *fpo;

for(i=0;i<nt;i++)for(j=0;j<nt;j++)pl[i][j]=0;

for(r=0;r<nr;r++)pl[res[r][0]][res[r][1]]++;

for(i=0;i<MAXP;i++)for(j=0;j<nt;j++)stat[i][j]=0;

for(i=0;i<(1<<rel);i++)rels[i]=0;

for(i=0;i<nt;i++)ord[i]=i;

for(it=0;it<=maxit;it++){

if(it%(MAX(maxit/10,1))==0||it==maxit){//print

for(k=0;k<1+(it==maxit)+(it==maxit&&nr==nt*(nt-1));k++){

char tbuf[100];

if(k==0){printf("\n");fpo=stdout;} else {

if(k==1)sprintf(l,"%s/table",datadir); else sprintf(l,"%s/finaltable",datadir);

fpo=fopen(l,"w");assert(fpo);

}

strftime(tbuf,1000,"%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S",&now);

fprintf(fpo,"ASOF %s+0000\n",cutofftime);

fprintf(fpo,"UPDATED %s+0000\n",tbuf);

if(last>=0){

time_t t0;

struct tm tt0;

t0=res[last][4];assert(gmtime_r(&t0,&tt0));strftime(tbuf,1000,"%Y-%m-%d",&tt0);

fprintf(fpo,"LASTPLAYED %s %s %s %d %d\n",tbuf,tm[res[last][0]],tm[res[last][1]],res[last][2],res[last][3]);

}else fprintf(fpo,"LASTPLAYED none played so far\n");

fprintf(fpo,"ITERATIONS %d\n",it);

if(k==0)fprintf(fpo,"acc %.1f%% acc%%*sd^2 %g\n",100*acc/(acc+rej),100*acc/(acc+rej)*trialsd*trialsd);

//for(i=0;i<nt;i++)pt[i]=stat[3][i]+stat[5][i]/1000.;

//for(i=0;i<nt;i++)pt[i]=sc[i]*1e5+gd[i];

qsort(ord,nt,sizeof(int),cmps);

fprintf(fpo,"BEGINTABLE\n");

fprintf(fpo,"%-*s -- Current -- --------- Luck --------- ------- Expected ------- ",maxtl,"");

for(i=0;i<MAXP&&prop[cl][i];i++);

j=9*(i-2)-60;

for(t=0;t<j/2;t++)fprintf(fpo,"-");

fprintf(fpo," Percentage chance ");

for(t=0;t<(j+1)/2;t++)fprintf(fpo,"-");

fprintf(fpo,"\n");

fprintf(fpo,"%-*s Pld Pts GD ",maxtl,"Team");

for(i=0;i<MAXP&&prop[cl][i];i++)fprintf(fpo,"%9s",descp(prop[cl][i]));fprintf(fpo,"\n");

for(i=0;i<nt;i++){

t=ord[i];

fprintf(fpo,"%-*s %2d %3d %+4d ",maxtl,tm[t],pg[t],sc[t],gd[t]);

for(j=0;j<MAXP;j++){

p=prop[cl][j];if(!p)break;

c=' ';if(stat[j][t]>0){

if(p>100&&p<200)c='P';

if(p<-200)c='R';

}

x=stat[j][t];

if(j==4){y=stat[3][t];x=sqrt((it*x-y*y)/(it*(it-1.)));} else x/=it;

fprintf(fpo,"%7.2f%c ",x*(p<300?100:1),c);

}

fprintf(fpo,"\n");

}

for(i=0,fl=0;aa->s[i].t;i++)if(aa->s[i].d==cl)fl=1;

if(aa->r)for(i=0;aa->r[i].t0;i++)if(aa->r[i].d==cl)fl=1;

if(fl){

fprintf(fpo,"\nAdjustments:\n");

if(aa->r)for(i=0;aa->r[i].t0;i++)if(aa->r[i].d==cl)

fprintf(fpo,"%-*s %d - %d %-*s\n",

maxtl,aa->r[i].t0,aa->r[i].s0,aa->r[i].s1,maxtl,aa->r[i].t1);

for(i=0;aa->s[i].t;i++)if(aa->s[i].d==cl)fprintf(fpo,"%-*s %d\n",maxtl,aa->s[i].t,aa->s[i].a);

}

if(rel){

for(t=0;t<rel;t++)relp[t]=0;

for(n=0;n<(1<<rel);n++)for(t=0;t<rel;t++)if(n&(1<<t))relp[t]+=rels[n];

for(n=0;n<(1<<rel);n++){

for(t=0;t<rel;t++)fprintf(fpo," %s(%s)",(n&(1<<t))?"REL":" UP",tm[rell[t]]);

for(t=0,x=1;t<rel;t++){y=relp[t]/(double)it;if(n&(1<<t))x*=y; else x*=1-y;}

fprintf(fpo," %6.2f%% %6.2f%%\n",rels[n]*100/(double)it,x*100);

}

}

if(k>0)fclose(fpo);

}//k

}// if print

getnewparams();

//if(it==13230)prparams(pa);

for(i=0;i<nt;i++){sc1[i]=sc[i];sc0[i]=scu[i];gd1[i]=gd[i];gd0[i]=gdu[i];gs1[i]=gs[i];}

for(i=0;i<nt;i++)for(j=0;j<nt;j++)if(i!=j){

getsc(&h,&a,i,j);

if(pl[i][j]){// Game has been played: work out contribution to luck

sc0[i]-=(h>a?3:(h==a?1:0));

sc0[j]-=(a>h?3:(h==a?1:0));

gd0[i]-=h-a;gd0[j]-=a-h;

}else{// Game hasn't been played: work out contribution to prediction

//if(abs(h)>1000000000||abs(a)>1000000000)printf("it %d %d.%s vs %d.%s -> %d %d\n",it,i,tm[i],j,tm[j],h,a);

sc1[i]+=(h>a?3:(h==a?1:0));

sc1[j]+=(a>h?3:(h==a?1:0));

gd1[i]+=h-a;gd1[j]+=a-h;

gs1[i]+=h;gs1[j]+=a;

}

}

for(i=0;i<nt;i++)pt[i]=sc1[i]*1e8+gd1[i]*1e4+gs1[i]+.1*drnd();

qsort(ord,nt,sizeof(int),cmp);// now ord[] maps final position to team number

if(sprind)for(i=0;i<NUMSPR;i++){

stat[3][ord[i]]+=sprind1[i];

stat[4][ord[i]]+=sprind1[i]*sprind1[i];

}

for(i=0;i<nt;i++){

stat[0][i]+=sc0[i];

stat[1][i]+=100*((sc0[i]>0)+.5*(sc0[i]==0));

stat[2][i]+=gd0[i];

if(!sprind){

stat[3][i]+=sc1[i];

stat[4][i]+=sc1[i]*sc1[i];

}

stat[5][i]+=gd1[i];

}

for(i=6;i<MAXP&&prop[cl][i];i++){

p=prop[cl][i];

if(p>0&&p<100){for(j=0;j<MIN(p,nt);j++)stat[i][ord[j]]++;continue;}

if(p<0&&p>-100){for(j=MAX(nt+p,0);j<nt;j++)stat[i][ord[j]]++;continue;}

if(p>100&&p<200){

p-=100;

for(j=0;j<MIN(p,nt);j++)stat[i][ord[j]]++;

stat[i][playoff(ord[p],ord[p+1],ord[p+2],ord[p+3])]++;

continue;

}

if(p<-200&&p>-300){

p+=200;for(j=MAX(nt+p,0);j<nt;j++)stat[i][ord[j]]++;

if(rel){

for(j=MAX(nt+p,0),n=0;j<nt;j++){k=relm[ord[j]];if(k>=0)n|=1<<k;}

assert(n>=0&&n<(1<<rel));rels[n]++;

}

continue;

}

fprintf(stderr,"Unrecognised property %d\n",p);exit(1);

}

}

}

double poisent(double la){

int r;

double m,x,ll;

m=exp(-la);x=0;ll=log(la);

for(r=0;r<MAXS;r++){

x+=m*(la-r*ll+lfac[r]);

m*=la/(r+1);

}

return x;

}

void doeval(){

int a,b,c,d,i,nr0;

double x,la,mu,pr,tp,del,L,L1[np];

for(i=0;i<np;i++)pa[i]=0;

del=2e-3;

nr0=nr;

printf("%d results\n",nr0);

for(nr=200,tp=0;nr<nr0;nr++){

it=0;

while(1){

L=getL(L1);

for(i=0,x=0;i<np;i++)x+=L1[i]*L1[i];x=sqrt(x/np);

if(x<1e-6)break;

if(0&&it%1000==0){

printf("\nit %d\nL %10g bits L/nr %10g bits\n",it,L/log(2),L/log(2)/nr);

for(i=0;i<nt;i++)printf("%-*s %12g %12g %12g %12g\n",maxtl,tm[i],al[i],be[i],L1[i],L1[nt+i]);

printf("%12g %12g\n%12g %12g\n",hh[0],L1[2*nt],hh[1],L1[2*nt+1]);

}

for(i=0;i<np;i++)pa[i]+=del*L1[i];

it++;

if(it==50000){fprintf(stderr,"Couldn't find MLE at nr=%d\n",nr);exit(1);}

}

a=res[nr][0];b=res[nr][1];c=res[nr][2];d=res[nr][3];

la=fn(al[a]-be[b]+hh[0]);

mu=fn(al[b]-be[a]-hh[1]);

pr=-la+c*log(la)-lfac[c]-mu+d*log(mu)-lfac[d];

printf("%4d %4d %7.3f %*s %*s %2d %2d\n",nr,it,pr,maxtl,tm[a],maxtl,tm[b],c,d);

tp+=pr;

}

printf("Total likelihood %.3f\n",tp);

for(nr=200,tp=0;nr<nr0;nr++){

a=res[nr][0];b=res[nr][1];c=res[nr][2];d=res[nr][3];

la=fn(al[a]-be[b]+hh[0]);

mu=fn(al[b]-be[a]-hh[1]);

pr=-la+c*log(la)-lfac[c]-mu+d*log(mu)-lfac[d];

//printf("%4d %4d %7.3f %*s %*s %2d %2d\n",nr,it,pr,maxtl,tm[a],maxtl,tm[b],c,d);

tp+=pr;

}

printf("Total likelihood %.3f\n",tp);

}

void getpriorparams(int cl0){

int i,t,nf,cl,pln[MAXNT];

double x,y;

char l[1000],*l1;

FILE *fp;

for(i=0;i<nt;i++){

pln[i]=-1;

if(cl0<4)ppa[i]=ppa[nt+i]=0; else ppa[i]=ppa[nt+i]=-.2;

// ^ A previously unseen team entering the Conference is likely to be worse than average

ppaiv[i]=ppaiv[nt+i]=20;

// ^ A previously unseen team is more unknown than a previously seen team

}

ppa[2*nt]=0.35;ppaiv[2*nt]=25;

ppa[2*nt+1]=0;ppaiv[2*nt+1]=25;

nf=0;

for(cl=0;cl<NUML;cl++){// Scan all of last year's leagues to find teams in the current league

sprintf(l,"data/%02d%02d/div%d/finalratings",(year-1)%100,year%100,cl);

fp=fopen(l,"r");if(!fp){fprintf(stderr,"Warning: Couldn't open prev finalratings file %s\n",l);continue;}

while(fgets(l,1000,fp)){

l1=getsp(l);

if(cl==cl0&&l1-l==7&&strncmp(l,"HOMEADV",l1-l)==0)ppa[2*nt]=atof(l1);

if(cl==cl0&&l1-l==10&&strncmp(l,"AWAYDISADV",l1-l)==0)ppa[2*nt+1]=atof(l1);

if(l1-l==12&&strncmp(l,"BEGINRATINGS",l1-l)==0)break;

}

while(fgets(l,1000,fp)){

l1=getsp(l);assert(l1[0]==' ');

l1[0]=0;

t=s2n(l,0);if(t==-1)continue;// look up team 'l' to find its team number in the current league

assert(t<nt);

sscanf(l1+1,"%lf %lf",&x,&y);

ppa[t]=x+poff[cl]-poff[cl0];

ppa[nt+t]=y+poff[cl]-poff[cl0];

ppaiv[t]=ppaiv[nt+t]=40;

pln[t]=cl;

if(cl!=cl0){ppaiv[t]*=.7;ppaiv[nt+t]*=.7;}

nf++;

}

}

for(t=0,x=y=0;t<nt;t++){x+=ppa[t];y+=ppa[nt+t];}

for(t=0;t<nt;t++){ppa[t]-=x/nt;ppa[nt+t]-=y/nt;}

printf("Found %d out of %d teams from previous year's ratings\n",nf,nt);

if(nf<nt&&cl0<4)printf("Warning: %d unknown team%s\n",nt-nf,nt-nf==1?"":"s");

printf("%*s---- Prior ----\n",maxtl/2+14,"");

printf("%-*s pl cl Attack sd Defence sd\n",maxtl,"Team");

for(t=0;t<nt;t++)printf("%-*s %2d %2d %7.3f %7.3f %7.3f %7.3f\n",

maxtl,tm[t],pln[t],cl0,ppa[t],1/sqrt(ppaiv[t]),ppa[nt+t],1/sqrt(ppaiv[nt+t]));

for(i=0;i<2;i++)printf("%7.3f %7.3f\n",ppa[2*nt+i],1/sqrt(ppaiv[2*nt+i]));

printf("\n");

for(t=0;t<2*nt+2;t++)ppaiv[t]*=1;

}

int cmpr(const void*x,const void*y){

double z;

z=relp[*((int*)y)]-relp[*((int*)x)];

return (z>0)-(z<0);

}

int main(int ac,char **av){

int a,b,c,d,i,j,k,n,r,t,cl,m0,m1,s0,s1,ts,no,nr0,ss[MAXS][MAXS],rs[MAXS],cs[MAXS],ord[MAXNT];

double x,y,ex,ob,la,mu,chi,der;

char l[1000],*l2,*l3,l4[100],now0[1000],now1[1000],lmdt[100];

time_t t0;

FILE *fp,*fpi,*fpo;

initargs(ac,av);

t0=time(0);assert(gmtime_r(&t0,&now));

strftime(now0,1000,"%Y%m%d-%H%M%S",&now);

strftime(now1,1000,"%A %e %B %Y at %T GMT",&now);

strftime(l,1000,"%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S",&now);if(strcmp(l,cutofftime)<0)strcpy(cutofftime,l);

printf("Analysis at %s\n",now1);

loadequivnames();

for(i=1,lfac[0]=0;i<MAXS;i++)lfac[i]=lfac[i-1]+log(i);

for(i=0;adjall[i].y&&adjall[i].y!=year;i++);

aa=&adjall[i];if(aa->y==0)printf("Warning - no adjustments found for year %d\n",year);

for(cl=0;cl<5;cl++){

if(ln>=0&&cl!=ln)continue;

sprintf(lmdt,"%sT23:59:59",aa->mdt[cl]);aa->mdt[cl]=lmdt;

if(strcmp(cutofftime,aa->mdt[cl])<0)aa->mdt[cl]=cutofftime;

acc=rej=0;

maxtl=10;// maxtl>=10 to line up "AWAYDISADV"

getname(year,cl,divname);

sprintf(datadir,"data/%02d%02d/div%d",year%100,(year+1)%100,cl);

sprintf(l,"mkdir -p %s",datadir);assert(system(l)==0);

last=-1;

if(update){// fetch results

sprintf(l,"/usr/bin/python getresults.py %d %d",cl,year);fpi=popen(l,"r");

sprintf(l,"%s/results",datadir);fpo=fopen(l,"w");assert(fpo);

while(fgets(l,1000,fpi))fprintf(fpo,"%s",l);

pclose(fpi);

if(aa->r)for(i=0;aa->r[i].t0;i++)if(aa->r[i].d==cl){// Adjustment results (extra matches)

fprintf(fpo,"%s %s %s %d %d",aa->r[i].dt,aa->r[i].t0,aa->r[i].t1,aa->r[i].s0,aa->r[i].s1);

}

fclose(fpo);

}

nt=0;nr=0;no=0;

sprintf(l,"%s/teams",datadir);fp=fopen(l,"r");

if(fp){

while(fgets(l,1000,fp)){l[strlen(l)-1]=0;s2n(l,1);}

fclose(fp);

}

sprintf(l,"%s/results",datadir);fp=fopen(l,"r");assert(fp);

while(fgets(l,1000,fp)){

assert(nr<MAXNM);

l2=l;l3=getsp(l2);*l3=0;

strcpy(l4,l2);if(strlen(l4)==10)strcat(l4,"T14:00:00");// Give matches with unknown times a nominal 2pm kickoff

if(strcmp(l4,aa->mdt[cl])>0)continue;

res[nr][4]=secs(l2);

l2=nonsp(l3+1);l3=getsp(l2);*l3=0;res[nr][0]=s2n(l2,1);

l2=nonsp(l3+1);l3=getsp(l2);*l3=0;res[nr][1]=s2n(l2,1);

n=sscanf(l3+1,"%d %d %lf %lf %lf",&res[nr][2],&res[nr][3],&odds[nr][0],&odds[nr][1],&odds[nr][2]);

assert(n==2||n==5);

no+=(n==5);

if(last==-1||res[nr][4]>res[last][4])last=nr;// record the last match played

nr++;

}

fclose(fp);

assert(no==0||no==nr);

//printf("no=%d\n",no);

getpriorparams(cl);

qsort(res,nr,5*sizeof(int),cmpres);

checkres();

nr0=nr;

nr=MIN(nr,useres);

printf("%d team%s\n",nt,nt==1?"":"s");

printf("%d result%s, of which using %d\n",nr0,nr0==1?"":"s",nr);

//if(nt==0)return 0;

if(rel){

int nt0;

sprintf(l,"%s/table",datadir);fp=fopen(l,"r");

if(!fp){fprintf(stderr,"Can't use rel>0 option without running through once normally first\n");exit(1);}

do assert(fgets(l,1000,fp)); while(strncmp(l,"Team",4));

nt0=nt;n=0;

for(i=0;i<MAXP;i++){

j=prop[cl][i];

if(j==0){fprintf(stderr,"Couldn't find relegation property in division %d\n",cl);exit(1);}

if(j<-200&&j>-300)break;

}

while(fgets(l,1000,fp))if(l[0]!=' '){

l2=getsp(l);l2[0]=0;t=s2n(l,1);l2[0]=' ';n++;

if(nt>nt0){fprintf(stderr,"Team '%s' in old table is not recognised\n",tm[nt-1]);exit(1);}

rell[t]=t;relp[t]=atof(col(4+i,l));

}

if(n!=nt){fprintf(stderr,"There are some missing teams in old table\n");exit(1);}

qsort(rell,nt,sizeof(int),cmpr);

//for(i=0;i<nt;i++)printf("%s %g\n",tm[rell[i]],relp[rell[i]]);

for(i=0;i<nt;i++)relm[i]=-1;

for(i=0;i<rel;i++)relm[rell[i]]=i;

printf("Relegation set: ");

for(i=0;i<rel;i++)printf("%s ",tm[rell[i]]);

printf("\n");

fclose(fp);

}

for(i=0;i<nt;i++)sc[i]=gd[i]=gs[i]=pg[i]=0;

for(r=0;r<nr;r++){

a=res[r][0];b=res[r][1];c=res[r][2];d=res[r][3];

sc[a]+=(c>d?3:(c==d?1:0));

sc[b]+=(d>c?3:(c==d?1:0));

gd[a]+=c-d;gd[b]+=d-c;

gs[a]+=c;gs[b]+=d;

pg[a]++;pg[b]++;

}

for(i=0;i<nt;i++){scu[i]=sc[i];gdu[i]=gd[i];}// Unadjusted copy

for(i=0;aa->s[i].t;i++)if(aa->s[i].d==cl)for(j=0;j<nt;j++)if(strcmp(aa->s[i].t,tm[j])==0)sc[j]+=aa->s[i].a;

for(i=0;i<MAXS;i++)for(j=0;j<MAXS;j++)ss[i][j]=0;

for(i=0,m0=m1=0;i<nr;i++){

s0=res[i][2];s1=res[i][3];assert(s0<MAXS&&s1<MAXS);

if(s0>m0)m0=s0;

if(s1>m1)m1=s1;

ss[s0][s1]++;

}

for(i=0;i<=m0;i++){

printf("%2d: ",i);

for(j=0;j<=m1;j++)printf("%3d ",ss[i][j]);

printf("\n");

}