int main(int argc,char *argv[]) {
int c;
bool writeOutput = false;
std::string outFileName = "";
std::vector<std::string> years;
std::string inYears = "";
int numIterations = 1;
int outYear = 0;
bool useSeededValues = false;
std::string seededLocation = "";
bool zeroSRS = false;
/*____________________________Parse Command Line___________________________*/
while ((c = getopt(argc, argv, "y:Y:o:i:S:zh")) != -1) {
switch (c) {
case 'y':
inYears.assign(optarg);
boost::split(years, inYears, boost::is_any_of(","));
break;
case 'Y':
outYear = atoi(optarg);
break;
case 'o':
outFileName.assign(optarg);
writeOutput = true;
break;
case 'i':
numIterations = atoi(optarg);
break;
case 'S':
useSeededValues = true;
seededLocation.assign(optarg);
break;
case 'z':
zeroSRS = true;
break;
case 'h':
printOptions();
return 0;
default:
// not an option
break;
}
}
//ensure years and outYear are set
if (years.empty()) {
std::cout << "You must set the input years using the -y switch and a comma-separated list of years" <<
std::endl;
printOptions();
return 0;
}
if (outYear == 0) {
std::cout << "You must set the output year using the -Y switch" << std::endl;
printOptions();
return 0;
}
char *homePath, path[256];
homePath = getenv("HOME");
//read in the necessary constants
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/waverage_standard_deviations.d", homePath);
ConstantStandardDeviations *stdDevs = ConstantStandardDeviations::Instance();
stdDevs->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/season_info.d", homePath);
ConstantSeasonInfo *seasonInfo = ConstantSeasonInfo::Instance();
seasonInfo->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/waverage_functions.d", homePath);
ConstantWAverageFunctions *functions = ConstantWAverageFunctions::Instance();
functions->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/team_neutral_ratios.d", homePath);
ConstantTeamNeutralRatios *ratios = ConstantTeamNeutralRatios::Instance();
ratios->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/srs_additions.d", homePath);
ConstantSRSadditions *additions = ConstantSRSadditions::Instance();
additions->initialize(path);
//read in the game and waverage info
for (std::string &year : years) {
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/teams/%s/", homePath, year.c_str());
std::cout << "Reading in games and waverages for " << year << std::endl;
readTeamsFromDir(path);
readTeamsFromDir(path, "waverages");
}
std::unordered_map<std::string, Team*> teams = Team::getTeams();
std::unordered_map<std::string, TeamGame*> games;
Team *opp;
TeamWAverage *wa1, *wa2;
int totalGames = 0;
for (auto &team : teams) {
games = team.second->getGamesByDate();
for (auto &game : games) {
if (team.first < game.second->getOpp()) continue; //look at each game only once
opp = Team::findTeam(game.second->getOpp());
if (!opp) continue;
if (game.second->getDate() >= seasonInfo->get(team.second->getYear(), "tournament start")) continue;
if (game.second->getDate().month().as_number() == 11) continue;
totalGames++;
wa1 = team.second->WAverageOnDate(game.second->getDate());
wa2 = opp->WAverageOnDate(game.second->getDate());
std::string loc = game.second->getLoc();
std::string oppLoc = game.second->getOppLoc();
std::unordered_map<std::string, double> predictions1 = functions->predictStats(wa1, wa2, outYear);
std::unordered_map<std::string, double> predictions2 = functions->predictStats(wa2, wa1, outYear);
win.push_back(game.second->getWin());
oor.push_back((predictions1["oor.p"] * wa1->getValue("oor.p") / ratios->get(outYear,loc,"oor.p") -
predictions2["oor.p"] * wa2->getValue("oor.p") / ratios->get(outYear,oppLoc,"oor.p")) /
stdDevs->get(outYear,"oor.p"));
oefg.push_back((predictions1["oefg.p"] * wa1->getValue("oefg.p") / ratios->get(outYear,loc,"oefg.p") -
predictions2["oefg.p"] * wa2->getValue("oefg.p") / ratios->get(outYear,oppLoc,"oefg.p")) /
stdDevs->get(outYear,"oefg.p"));
oftmr.push_back((predictions1["oftmr.p"] * wa1->getValue("oftmr.p") / ratios->get(outYear,loc,"oftmr.p") -
predictions2["oftmr.p"] * wa2->getValue("oftmr.p") / ratios->get(outYear,oppLoc,"oftmr.p")) /
stdDevs->get(outYear,"oftmr.p"));
//This guy is reversed because turnovers are bad.
oto.push_back((-predictions1["oto.p"] * wa1->getValue("oto.p") / ratios->get(outYear,loc,"oto.p") +
predictions2["oto.p"] * wa2->getValue("oto.p") / ratios->get(outYear,oppLoc,"oto.p")) /
stdDevs->get(outYear,"oto.p"));
srs.push_back((wa1->getSrs() - wa2->getSrs()) / stdDevs->get(outYear,"srs")); //removed additions
}
}
std::cout << "Total number of games to analyze: " << totalGames << std::endl;
std::vector<double> temp_ary, temp_ary2;
std::vector<double> fcn_mins;
std::vector< std::vector<double>*> params_ary;
if (!useSeededValues) {
//random number generator, using Mersenne Twister method
//the 0 means we use a unique seed each time
TRandom3 rand(0);
for (int i = 0; i < numIterations; i++) {
double randoms[5];
rand.RndmArray(5, randoms);
if (zeroSRS)
temp_ary = run_fit(randoms[0], randoms[1], randoms[2], randoms[3], 0);
else
temp_ary = run_fit(randoms[0], randoms[1], randoms[2], randoms[3], randoms[4]);
double temp_fcn_min = temp_ary.back();
double temp_fcn_min2;
double temp_norm = 0;
int num_times_through = 0;
for (int k = 0; k < 100; k++) {
num_times_through++;
temp_ary2 = run_fit(temp_ary[0], temp_ary[1], temp_ary[2], temp_ary[3], temp_ary[4]);
temp_fcn_min2 = temp_ary2.back();
if (temp_fcn_min2 == temp_fcn_min && temp_ary == temp_ary2) break;
temp_ary = temp_ary2;
temp_fcn_min = temp_fcn_min2;
}
fcn_mins.push_back(temp_fcn_min);
params_ary.push_back(new std::vector<double>());
for (int ii = 0; ii < temp_ary.size(); ii++)
params_ary.back()->push_back(temp_ary[ii]);
int indexOfMin = indexOfVectorMin(fcn_mins);
std::cout << " " << i << "\t" << doubleFormatter(fcn_mins.back(), 4) << "\t" <<
doubleFormatter(fcn_mins[indexOfMin], 4) << "\t" << indexOfMin << "\r";
fflush(stdout);
// std::cout << " \t\t" << i << "\t" << doubleFormatter(fcn_mins.back(), 4) << "\t" <<
// doubleFormatter(fcn_mins[indexOfMin], 4) << "\t" << indexOfMin << std::endl;
// temp_norm = 0;
// for (int ii = 0; ii < 5; ii++)
// temp_norm += fabs(temp_ary[ii]);
// for (int ii = 0; ii < 5; ii++){
// std::cout << " " << ii << "\t" << doubleFormatter(temp_ary[ii],4) << std::endl;
// }
}
}
else{
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/%s", homePath, seededLocation.c_str());
ConstantGameFunction *gameFunction = ConstantGameFunction::Instance();
gameFunction->initialize(path);
std::vector<int> keys = gameFunction->getKeys();
for (int &year : keys){
std::vector<double> initialValuesVec = gameFunction->getWeights(year);
temp_ary = run_fit(initialValuesVec[0],initialValuesVec[1],initialValuesVec[2],
initialValuesVec[3],initialValuesVec[4]);
double temp_fcn_min = temp_ary.back();
double temp_fcn_min2;
double temp_norm = 0;
int num_times_through = 0;
for (int k = 0; k < 100; k++) {
num_times_through++;
temp_ary2 = run_fit(temp_ary[0], temp_ary[1], temp_ary[2], temp_ary[3], temp_ary[4]);
temp_fcn_min2 = temp_ary2.back();
if (temp_fcn_min2 == temp_fcn_min && temp_ary == temp_ary2) break;
temp_ary = temp_ary2;
temp_fcn_min = temp_fcn_min2;
}
fcn_mins.push_back(temp_fcn_min);
params_ary.push_back(new std::vector<double>());
for (int ii = 0; ii < temp_ary.size(); ii++)
params_ary.back()->push_back(temp_ary[ii]);
int indexOfMin = indexOfVectorMin(fcn_mins);
std::cout << " " << year << "\t" << doubleFormatter(fcn_mins.back(), 4) << "\t" <<
doubleFormatter(fcn_mins[indexOfMin], 4) << "\t" << indexOfMin << std::endl;
}
}
std::cout << "\n\n\nFinal Results";
int indexOfMin = indexOfVectorMin(fcn_mins);
double norm = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < 5; i++)
norm += fabs(params_ary[indexOfMin]->at(i));
std::cout << "Minimum = " << doubleFormatter(fcn_mins[indexOfMin],4) << std::endl;
for (int i = 0; i < 5; i++)
std::cout << i << "\t" << doubleFormatter(params_ary[indexOfMin]->at(i) / norm, 4) << std::endl;
if (writeOutput) {
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/%s", homePath, outFileName.c_str());
std::ofstream outFile(path, std::ios::app);
outFile << outYear;
for (int i = 0; i < 5; i++)
outFile << "," << doubleFormatter(params_ary[indexOfMin]->at(i) / norm, 4);
outFile << "," << doubleFormatter(params_ary[indexOfMin]->at(5), 4);
outFile << std::endl;
outFile.close();
}
return 0;
}
int main(int argc,char *argv[]) {
int c;
std::vector<std::string> years;
std::string inYears = "";
int numIterations = 1;
std::string outFileName = "";
bool writeOutput = false;
int outYear = 0;
/*____________________________Parse Command Line___________________________*/
while ((c = getopt(argc, argv, "y:Y:i:o:h")) != -1) {
switch (c) {
case 'y':
inYears.assign(optarg);
boost::split(years, inYears, boost::is_any_of(","));
break;
case 'Y':
outYear = atoi(optarg);
break;
case 'i':
numIterations = atoi(optarg);
break;
case 'o':
outFileName.assign(optarg);
writeOutput = true;
break;
case 'h':
printOptions();
return 0;
default:
// not an option
break;
}
}
//ensure years and outYear are set
if (years.empty()) {
std::cout << "You must set the input years using the -y switch and a comma-separated list of years" <<
std::endl;
printOptions();
return 0;
}
if (outYear == 0) {
std::cout << "You must set the output year using the -Y switch" << std::endl;
printOptions();
return 0;
}
char *homePath, path[256];
homePath = getenv("HOME");
//read in the necessary constants
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/season_info.d", homePath);
ConstantSeasonInfo *seasonInfo = ConstantSeasonInfo::Instance();
seasonInfo->initialize(path);
//read in the game and waverage info
for (std::string &year : years) {
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/teams/%s/", homePath, year.c_str());
std::cout << "Reading in games and waverages for " << year << std::endl;
readTeamsFromDir(path);
readTeamsFromDir(path, "waverages");
}
std::unordered_map<std::string, Team*> teams = Team::getTeams();
std::unordered_map<std::string, TeamGame*> games;
Team *opp;
TeamWAverage *wa1, *wa2;
int totalGames = 0;
std::cout << "Processing Games" << std::endl;
for (auto &team : teams) {
games = team.second->getGamesByDate();
for (auto &game : games) {
if (team.first < game.second->getOpp()) continue; //look at each game only once
opp = Team::findTeam(game.second->getOpp());
if (!opp) continue;
if (game.second->getDate() >= seasonInfo->get(team.second->getYear(), "tournament start")) continue;
if (game.second->getDate().month().as_number() == 11) continue;
totalGames++;
wa1 = team.second->WAverageOnDate(game.second->getDate());
wa2 = opp->WAverageOnDate(game.second->getDate());
int loc = 0;
if (game.second->getLoc() == "home") loc = 1;
else if (game.second->getLoc() == "away") loc = -1;
win.push_back(game.second->getWin());
location.push_back(loc);
srs.push_back((wa1->getSrs() - wa2->getSrs()));
}
}
std::cout << "Total number of games to analyze: " << totalGames << std::endl;
std::vector<double> temp_ary, temp_ary2;
std::vector<double> fcn_min;
std::vector< std::vector<double>*> params_ary;
//random number generator, using Mersenne Twister method
//the 0 means we use a unique seed each time
TRandom3 rand(0);
for (int i = 0; i < numIterations; i++){
temp_ary = run_fit(rand.Rndm()*40 - 20);//random number between -20 and 20
double temp_fcn_min = temp_ary.back();
double temp_fcn_min2;
int num_times_through = 0;
for (int k = 0; k < 100; k++){
num_times_through++;
temp_ary2 = run_fit(temp_ary[0]);
temp_fcn_min2 = temp_ary2.back();
if (temp_fcn_min2 == temp_fcn_min && temp_ary == temp_ary2) break;
temp_ary = temp_ary2;
temp_fcn_min = temp_fcn_min2;
}
fcn_min.push_back(temp_fcn_min);
params_ary.push_back(new std::vector<double>());
for (int ii = 0; ii < temp_ary.size(); ii++)
params_ary.back()->push_back(temp_ary[ii]);
int indexOfMin = indexOfVectorMin(fcn_min);
std::cout << " " << i << "\t" << doubleFormatter(fcn_min.back(), 4) << "\t" <<
doubleFormatter(fcn_min[indexOfMin], 4) << "\t" << indexOfMin << "\r";
fflush(stdout);
}
int indexOfMin = indexOfVectorMin(fcn_min);
std::cout << indexOfMin << "\t" << fcn_min[indexOfMin] << "\t" <<
params_ary[indexOfMin]->at(0) << std::endl;
if (writeOutput) {
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/%s", homePath, outFileName.c_str());
std::ofstream outFile(path, std::ios::app);
outFile << outYear << "," << doubleFormatter(params_ary[indexOfMin]->at(0), 2) << "," <<
doubleFormatter(params_ary[indexOfMin]->at(1), 4) << std::endl;
outFile.close();
}
return 0;
}
int main(int argc,char *argv[]) {
int c;
std::string outFileName = "";
std::vector<std::string> years;
std::string inYears = "";
std::string srsValue = "free";
/*____________________________Parse Command Line___________________________*/
while ((c = getopt(argc, argv, "y:o:s:h")) != -1) {
switch (c) {
case 'y':
inYears.assign(optarg);
boost::split(years, inYears, boost::is_any_of(","));
break;
case 'o':
outFileName.assign(optarg);
break;
case 's':
srsValue.assign(optarg);
break;
case 'h':
printOptions();
return 0;
default:
// not an option
break;
}
}
//ensure years and outYear are set
if (years.empty()) {
std::cout << "You must set the input years using the -y switch and a comma-separated list of years" <<
std::endl;
printOptions();
return 0;
}
if (outFileName == ""){
std::cout << "You must set the output file name using the -o switch" << std::endl;
printOptions();
return 0;
}
char *homePath, path[256];
homePath = getenv("HOME");
//read in the necessary constants
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/waverage_standard_deviations.d", homePath);
ConstantStandardDeviations *stdDevs = ConstantStandardDeviations::Instance();
stdDevs->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/season_info.d", homePath);
ConstantSeasonInfo *seasonInfo = ConstantSeasonInfo::Instance();
seasonInfo->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/waverage_functions.d", homePath);
ConstantWAverageFunctions *functions = ConstantWAverageFunctions::Instance();
functions->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/team_neutral_ratios.d", homePath);
ConstantTeamNeutralRatios *ratios = ConstantTeamNeutralRatios::Instance();
ratios->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/srs_additions.d", homePath);
ConstantSRSadditions *additions = ConstantSRSadditions::Instance();
additions->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/game_function_weights.%s.d", homePath,srsValue.c_str());
ConstantGameFunction *gameFunction = ConstantGameFunction::Instance();
gameFunction->initialize(path);
//read in the game and waverage info
for (std::string &year : years) {
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/teams/%s/", homePath, year.c_str());
std::cout << "Reading in games and waverages for " << year << std::endl;
readTeamsFromDir(path);
readTeamsFromDir(path, "waverages");
}
std::unordered_map<std::string, Team *> teams = Team::getTeams();
std::unordered_map<std::string, TeamGame *> games;
Team *opp;
TeamWAverage *wa1, *wa2;
TFile file(("rootFiles/"+outFileName).c_str(),"RECREATE");
std::unordered_map<int, TH1F*> hists_gameScore_wins, hists_gameScore_losses;
for (int year = 2007; year <= 2016; year++) {
sprintf(path,"hist_gameScore_wins_%d",year);
hists_gameScore_wins.emplace(year, new TH1F(path,"",200,-3,3));
sprintf(path,"hist_gameScore_losses_%d",year);
hists_gameScore_losses.emplace(year, new TH1F(path,"",200,-3,3));
}
for (auto &team : teams) {
games = team.second->getGamesByDate();
for (auto &game : games) {
if (team.first < game.second->getOpp()) continue; //look at each game only once
opp = Team::findTeam(game.second->getOpp());
if (!opp) continue;
if (game.second->getDate() >= seasonInfo->get(team.second->getYear(), "tournament start")) continue;
if (game.second->getDate().month().as_number() == 11) continue;
bool win = game.second->getWin() == 1;
int gameYear = team.second->getYear();
wa1 = team.second->WAverageOnDate(game.second->getDate());
wa2 = opp->WAverageOnDate(game.second->getDate());
std::string loc = game.second->getLoc();
std::string oppLoc = game.second->getOppLoc();
std::unordered_map<int, double> gameScoreByYear;
switch (gameYear){
case 2005:
for (int y = 2007; y <= 2010; y++)
gameScoreByYear.emplace(y, gameFunction->predictGame(wa1,wa2,y,loc,oppLoc));
break;
case 2006:
for (int y = 2007; y <= 2011; y++)
gameScoreByYear.emplace(y, gameFunction->predictGame(wa1,wa2,y,loc,oppLoc));
break;
case 2007:
for (int y = 2008; y <= 2012; y++)
gameScoreByYear.emplace(y, gameFunction->predictGame(wa1,wa2,y,loc,oppLoc));
break;
case 2008:
for (int y = 2009; y <= 2013; y++)
gameScoreByYear.emplace(y, gameFunction->predictGame(wa1,wa2,y,loc,oppLoc));
break;
case 2009:
for (int y = 2010; y <= 2014; y++)
gameScoreByYear.emplace(y, gameFunction->predictGame(wa1,wa2,y,loc,oppLoc));
break;
case 2010:
for (int y = 2011; y <= 2015; y++)
gameScoreByYear.emplace(y, gameFunction->predictGame(wa1,wa2,y,loc,oppLoc));
break;
case 2011:
for (int y = 2012; y <= 2016; y++)
gameScoreByYear.emplace(y, gameFunction->predictGame(wa1,wa2,y,loc,oppLoc));
break;
case 2012:
for (int y = 2013; y <= 2016; y++)
gameScoreByYear.emplace(y, gameFunction->predictGame(wa1,wa2,y,loc,oppLoc));
break;
case 2013:
for (int y = 2014; y <= 2016; y++)
gameScoreByYear.emplace(y, gameFunction->predictGame(wa1,wa2,y,loc,oppLoc));
break;
case 2014:
for (int y = 2015; y <= 2016; y++)
gameScoreByYear.emplace(y, gameFunction->predictGame(wa1,wa2,y,loc,oppLoc));
break;
case 2015:
for (int y = 2016; y <= 2016; y++)
gameScoreByYear.emplace(y, gameFunction->predictGame(wa1,wa2,y,loc,oppLoc));
break;
}
if (win){
for (int y = 2007; y <= 2016; y++){
if (gameScoreByYear.find(y) == gameScoreByYear.end()) continue;
hists_gameScore_wins[y]->Fill(gameScoreByYear[y]);
hists_gameScore_losses[y]->Fill(-gameScoreByYear[y]);
}
}
else{
for (int y = 2007; y <= 2016; y++){
if (gameScoreByYear.find(y) == gameScoreByYear.end()) continue;
hists_gameScore_wins[y]->Fill(-gameScoreByYear[y]);
hists_gameScore_losses[y]->Fill(gameScoreByYear[y]);
}
}
}
}
TF1 *fnWins = new TF1("fnWins","gaus");
TF1 *fnLosses = new TF1("fnLosses","gaus");
std::unordered_map<int, TH1F*> hists_probs;
std::unordered_map<int, TH1F*> hists_probs_err;
for (int y = 2007; y <= 2016; y++){
if (hists_gameScore_wins[y]->Integral() == 0) continue;
hists_gameScore_wins[y]->Fit(fnWins,"q");
hists_gameScore_losses[y]->Fit(fnLosses,"q");
sprintf(path,"probs_by_year_%d",y);
hists_probs.emplace(y, new TH1F(path,"",1600,-3,3));
sprintf(path,"probs_err_by_year_%d",y);
hists_probs_err.emplace(y, new TH1F(path,"",1600,-3,3));
for (int i = 1; i < 1600; i++){
double w = fnWins->Eval(-3+i*6/1600.0);
double l = fnLosses->Eval(-3+i*6/1600.0);
double p = 0;
double e = 0;
if (w != 0 && l != 0){
p = w / (double)(w+l);
e = sqrt(p*(1-p) / (w+l));
}
else if (w != 0 && l == 0){
p = 1;
e = 0.01;
}
else if (w == 0){
p = 0;
e = 0.01;
}
hists_probs[y]->SetBinContent(i,p);
hists_probs_err[y]->SetBinContent(i,e);
}
}
file.Write();
file.Close();
return 0;
}
int main(int argc,char *argv[]) {
int c;
bool writeOutput = false;
std::vector<std::string> years;
std::string inYears = "";
bool useHistogramsFile = false;
std::string srsValue = "free";
std::string outFileName = "";
double sigmas = 3;
int nbins = 33;
std::string predictionDay = "";
std::string endRangeDay = "";
/*____________________________Parse Command Line___________________________*/
while ((c = getopt(argc, argv, "y:HS:o:s:n:d:D:h")) != -1) {
switch (c) {
case 'y':
inYears.assign(optarg);
boost::split(years, inYears, boost::is_any_of(","));
break;
case 's':
srsValue.assign(optarg);
break;
case 'H':
useHistogramsFile = true;
break;
case 'o':
outFileName = optarg;
break;
case 'S':
sigmas = atof(optarg);
break;
case 'n':
nbins = atoi(optarg);
break;
case 'd':
predictionDay.assign(optarg);
break;
case 'D':
endRangeDay.assign(optarg);
break;
case 'h':
printOptions();
return 0;
default:
// not an option
break;
}
}
//ensure years and outYear are set
if (years.empty()) {
std::cout << "You must set the input years using the -y switch and a comma-separated list of years" <<
std::endl;
printOptions();
return 0;
}
boost::gregorian::date predictionDate;
if (predictionDay != "")
predictionDate = boost::gregorian::date(boost::gregorian::from_string(predictionDay));
boost::gregorian::date endRangeDate;
if (endRangeDay != ""){
endRangeDate = boost::gregorian::date(boost::gregorian::from_string(endRangeDay));
if (predictionDay == ""){
std::cout << "If you enter an end date, you must also specify a start date" << std::endl;
return 0;
}
}
char *homePath, path[256];
homePath = getenv("HOME");
//read in the necessary constants
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/waverage_standard_deviations.d", homePath);
ConstantStandardDeviations *stdDevs = ConstantStandardDeviations::Instance();
stdDevs->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/season_info.d", homePath);
ConstantSeasonInfo *seasonInfo = ConstantSeasonInfo::Instance();
seasonInfo->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/waverage_functions.d", homePath);
ConstantWAverageFunctions *functions = ConstantWAverageFunctions::Instance();
functions->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/team_neutral_ratios.d", homePath);
ConstantTeamNeutralRatios *ratios = ConstantTeamNeutralRatios::Instance();
ratios->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/srs_additions.d", homePath);
ConstantSRSadditions *additions = ConstantSRSadditions::Instance();
additions->initialize(path);
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/constants/game_function_weights.%s.d", homePath,srsValue.c_str());
ConstantGameFunction *gameFunction = ConstantGameFunction::Instance();
gameFunction->initialize(path);
//read in the game and waverage info
for (std::string &year : years) {
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/teams/%s/", homePath, year.c_str());
std::cout << "Reading in games and waverages for " << year << std::endl;
readTeamsFromDir(path);
readTeamsFromDir(path, "waverages");
}
TFile *histsFile;
std::unordered_map<int, TH1F*> probs_by_year, probs_err_by_year;
if (useHistogramsFile){
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/rootFiles/gameFunctionHistograms.%s.root", homePath, srsValue.c_str());
histsFile = new TFile(path);
for (int y = 2007; y <= 2016; y++){
sprintf(path, "probs_by_year_%d", y);
probs_by_year.emplace(y, (TH1F*)gROOT->FindObject(path));
sprintf(path, "probs_err_by_year_%d", y);
probs_err_by_year.emplace(y, (TH1F*)gROOT->FindObject(path));
}
}
std::unordered_map<std::string, Team *> teams = Team::getTeams();
std::unordered_map<std::string, TeamGame *> games;
Team *opp;
TeamWAverage *wa1, *wa2;
int gameScoreWins = 0, gameScoreTotal = 0;
int gameScoreWinsSpread = 0, gameScoreTotalSpread = 0;
int vegasWinsSpread = 0, vegasTotalSpread = 0;
int adjGameScoreWins = 0, adjGameScoreTotal = 0;
int unadjustedSrsWins = 0, unadjustedSrsTotal = 0;
int srsWins = 0, srsTotal = 0;
int srsWinsSpread = 0, srsTotalSpread = 0;
int srsGameScoreWins = 0, srsGameScoreTotal = 0;
int srsGameScoreWinsSpread = 0, srsGameScoreTotalSpread = 0;
TFile *outFile;
if (outFileName != "") {
sprintf(path, "%s/cpp/NCAA_C/rootFiles/%s",homePath,outFileName.c_str());
outFile = new TFile(path, "RECREATE");
}
TH1F *h_wins = new TH1F("h_wins","",nbins,0,1);
TH1F *h_total = new TH1F("h_total","",nbins,0,1);
TH2F *spread_vs_spread = new TH2F("spread_vs_spread","",80,-20,20,80,-20,20);
TH2F *myspread_vs_pct = new TH2F("myspread_vs_pct","",100,0,1,80,-20,20);
TH2F *myPct_vs_VegasPct = new TH2F("myPct_vs_VegasPct","",nbins,0,1,nbins,0,1);
for (auto &team : teams) {
games = team.second->getGamesByDate();
for (auto &game : games) {
//look only at games within a certain range
if (predictionDay != ""){
if (endRangeDay == ""){
if (predictionDate != game.second->getDate()) continue;
}
else{
if (game.second->getDate() < predictionDate || game.second->getDate() > endRangeDate) continue;
}
}
else{
if (game.second->getDate() >= seasonInfo->get(team.second->getYear(), "tournament start")) continue;
if (game.second->getDate().month().as_number() == 11) continue;
}
if (team.first < game.second->getOpp()) continue; //look at each game only once
opp = Team::findTeam(game.second->getOpp());
if (!opp) continue;
TeamGame *oppgame = opp->GameOnDate(game.second->getDate(),team.second->getName());
bool win = game.second->getWin() == 1;
double spread = game.second->getSpread();
double mySpread;
wa1 = team.second->WAverageOnDate(game.second->getDate());
wa2 = opp->WAverageOnDate(game.second->getDate());
std::string loc = game.second->getLoc();
std::string oppLoc = game.second->getOppLoc();
double gameScore = gameFunction->predictGame(wa1,wa2,team.second->getYear(),loc,oppLoc);
if (gameScore >= 0 && win) gameScoreWins++;
if (gameScore < 0 && !win) gameScoreWins++;
gameScoreTotal++;
double gameScorePct = -1;
double gameScorePct_err = -1;
double unadjustedSrsVal = wa1->getSrs() - wa2->getSrs();
if (win && unadjustedSrsVal >= 0) unadjustedSrsWins++;
if (!win && unadjustedSrsVal < 0) unadjustedSrsWins++;
unadjustedSrsTotal++;
double srsVal = wa1->getSrs() - wa2->getSrs() + additions->get(team.second->getYear(),loc);
if (win && srsVal >= 0) srsWins++;
if (!win && srsVal < 0) srsWins++;
srsTotal++;
if (gameScore >= 0 && srsVal >= 0){
if (win) srsGameScoreWins++;
srsGameScoreTotal++;
}
if (gameScore < 0 && srsVal < 0){
if (!win) srsGameScoreWins++;
srsGameScoreTotal++;
}
if (useHistogramsFile){
if (gameScore >= 3){
gameScorePct = 1;
gameScorePct_err = 1;
}
else if (gameScore <= -3){
gameScorePct = 0;
gameScorePct_err = 1;
}
else{
gameScorePct = probs_by_year[team.second->getYear()]->GetBinContent((gameScore+3)*1600/6.0);
gameScorePct_err = probs_err_by_year[team.second->getYear()]->GetBinContent((gameScore+3)*1600/6.0);
}
if (gameScorePct >= 0.5 && gameScorePct - sigmas*gameScorePct_err >= 0.5 && win) adjGameScoreWins++;
if (gameScorePct < 0.5 && gameScorePct + sigmas*gameScorePct_err < 0.5 && !win) adjGameScoreWins++;
if ((gameScorePct >= 0.5 && gameScorePct - sigmas*gameScorePct_err >= 0.5) ||
(gameScorePct < 0.5 && gameScorePct + sigmas*gameScorePct_err < 0.5)) adjGameScoreTotal++;
if (win) h_wins->Fill(gameScorePct);
h_total->Fill(gameScorePct);
if (spread != 0 && spread == -1*oppgame->getSpread()){
mySpread = pctToSpread(gameScorePct);
myspread_vs_pct->Fill(gameScorePct,mySpread);
spread_vs_spread->Fill(spread, mySpread);
myPct_vs_VegasPct->Fill(spreadToPct(spread),gameScorePct);
}
}
if (spread != -1*oppgame->getSpread()) continue; //if the spreads are somehow messed up
if (spread != 0){
gameScoreTotalSpread++;
if (gameScore > 0 && win) gameScoreWinsSpread++;
if (gameScore < 0 && !win) gameScoreWinsSpread++;
srsTotalSpread++;
if (win && srsVal >= 0) srsWinsSpread++;
if (!win && srsVal < 0) srsWinsSpread++;
if (gameScore >= 0 && srsVal >= 0){
if (win) srsGameScoreWinsSpread++;
srsGameScoreTotalSpread++;
}
if (gameScore < 0 && srsVal < 0){
if (!win) srsGameScoreWinsSpread++;
srsGameScoreTotalSpread++;
}
vegasTotalSpread++;
if (spread < 0 && win) vegasWinsSpread++;
if (spread > 0 && !win) vegasWinsSpread++;
}
}
}
std::cout << "All Games" << std::endl;
std::cout << "gameScore:\t\t" << gameScoreWins << " / " << gameScoreTotal << " = " <<
doubleFormatter(gameScoreWins / (double) gameScoreTotal, 3) << std::endl;
if (useHistogramsFile) {
std::cout << "Games above sigma:\t" << adjGameScoreWins << " / " << adjGameScoreTotal << " = " <<
doubleFormatter(adjGameScoreWins / (double) adjGameScoreTotal, 3) << std::endl;
}
std::cout << "Unadjusted SRS:\t\t" << unadjustedSrsWins << " / " << unadjustedSrsTotal << " = " <<
doubleFormatter(unadjustedSrsWins / (double) unadjustedSrsTotal, 3) << std::endl;
std::cout << "Adjusted SRS:\t\t" << srsWins << " / " << srsTotal << " = " <<
doubleFormatter(srsWins / (double) srsTotal, 3) << std::endl;
std::cout << "SRS, GameScore agree :\t" << srsGameScoreWins << " / " << srsGameScoreTotal << " = " <<
doubleFormatter(srsGameScoreWins / (double) srsGameScoreTotal, 3) << std::endl;
std::cout << std::endl;
std::cout << "Games with a spread" << std::endl;
std::cout << "Vegas:\t\t\t" << vegasWinsSpread << " / " << vegasTotalSpread << " = " <<
doubleFormatter(vegasWinsSpread / (double) vegasTotalSpread,3) << std::endl;
std::cout << "gameScore:\t\t" << gameScoreWinsSpread << " / " << gameScoreTotalSpread << " = " <<
doubleFormatter(gameScoreWinsSpread / (double) gameScoreTotalSpread, 3) << std::endl;
std::cout << "SRS:\t\t\t" << srsWinsSpread << " / " << srsTotalSpread << " = " <<
doubleFormatter(srsWinsSpread / (double) srsTotalSpread, 3) << std::endl;
std::cout << "SRS, GameScore agree :\t" << srsGameScoreWinsSpread << " / " << srsGameScoreTotalSpread << " = " <<
doubleFormatter(srsGameScoreWinsSpread / (double) srsGameScoreTotalSpread, 3) << std::endl;
if (outFileName != "") {
outFile->Write();
outFile->Close();
}
return 0;
}
