//! Determine number of full days that have passed in current year
int convertDayMonthYearToDayOfYear( const boost::gregorian::date calendarDate )
{
// Calculate and return result (taking into account that this function should return 0 for first day, not 1)
return ( calendarDate.day_of_year( ) - 1 );
}
/////////1/////////2/////////3/////////4/////////5/////////6/////////7/////////8/////////9/////////A
void forecast::prediction_run(const string &site_name, const size_t pred_days)
{
report(INFO) << "Running forecast for : " << site_name;
try
{
pqxx::transaction<> trans1(flightpred_db::get_conn(), "flight prediction");
const bgreg::date today(boost::posix_time::second_clock::universal_time().date());
std::stringstream sstr;
sstr << "SELECT pred_site_id FROM pred_sites WHERE site_name='" << site_name << "'";
pqxx::result res = trans1.exec(sstr.str());
if(!res.size())
throw std::invalid_argument("site not found: " + site_name);
size_t pred_site_id;
res[0]["pred_site_id"].to(pred_site_id);
trans1.commit();
features_weather weather(false);
//load the configuration with the best score
solution_manager solmgr(site_name);
std::auto_ptr<solution_config> sol = solmgr.load_best_solution(true, 0.0);
report(VERBOSE) << "Loaded solution config : " << sol->get_solution_id() << " : " << sol->get_algorithm_name(true);
// get the feature descriptions of the weather data
const set<features_weather::feat_desc> &features = sol->get_weather_feature_desc();
report(VERBOSE) << "Loaded " << features.size() << " features.";
for(size_t j=0; j<pred_days; ++j)
{
const bgreg::date day(today + bgreg::days(j));
const vector<double> valweather = weather.get_features(features, day, true);
assert(valweather.size() == features.size());
// put together the values to feed to the svm
vector<double> features;
features.push_back(day.year());
features.push_back(day.day_of_year());
features.push_back(day.day_of_week());
std::copy(valweather.begin(), valweather.end(), std::back_inserter(features));
// let the machine make it's (educated) guesses
map<string, double> predval;
BOOST_FOREACH(const string& prednam, flightpred_globals::pred_values)
{
double val = sol->get_decision_function(prednam)->eval(features);
if(isnan(val) || val < 0.0)
val = 0.0;
predval[prednam] = val;
}
// normalize (some flying sites have no values between 0.0 and say 2.3 or so. In this step we subtract these minimal values.)
pqxx::transaction<> transl(flightpred_db::get_conn(), "flight prediction");
BOOST_FOREACH(const string& prednam, flightpred_globals::pred_values)
{
sstr.str("");
sstr << "SELECT " << prednam << " FROM flight_pred "
<< "WHERE pred_site_id = " << pred_site_id << " AND " << prednam << " > 0.0 AND train_sol_id = " << sol->get_solution_id()
<< " ORDER BY " << prednam << " ASC LIMIT 32";
res = transl.exec(sstr.str());
if(res.size() >= 30)
{
double smallest = 0.0;
res[0][0].to(smallest);
predval[prednam] -= smallest;
}
}
sstr.str("");
sstr << "INSERT INTO flight_pred (pred_site_id, train_sol_id,";
std::copy(flightpred_globals::pred_values.begin(), flightpred_globals::pred_values.end(), std::ostream_iterator<string>(sstr, ", "));
sstr << "calculated, pred_day) VALUES (" << pred_site_id << ", " << sol->get_solution_id() << ", ";
BOOST_FOREACH(const string& predname, flightpred_globals::pred_values)
{
double val = predval[predname];
sstr << val << ", ";
report(INFO) << site_name << " " << bgreg::to_iso_extended_string(day) << " "
<< predname << " " << val << std::endl;
}