Exemple #1
0
// bootstrap class
Boot::Boot(const Data& data, Estimator* estimator, const arma::umat& rep)
  : data(data), n(data.n), p(data.p), rep(rep), r(rep.n_cols) {

  coef.set_size(p, r);
  fitted.set_size(n, r);
  resid.set_size(n, r);
  scale.set_size(1, r);

  arma::uvec indices;

  Data resamp;

  // for each replicate, construct the dataset then estimate
  for (int i = 0; i < r; i++) {
    indices = rep.col(i);
    resamp.x = data.x.rows(indices);
    resamp.y = data.y.elem(indices);
    (*estimator)(resamp, coef.colptr(i), fitted.colptr(i), resid.colptr(i),
                 scale.colptr(i));
  }
}
Exemple #2
0
double ung_ssm::bsf_filter(const unsigned int nsim, arma::cube& alpha,
  arma::mat& weights, arma::umat& indices) {
  
  arma::uvec nonzero = arma::find(P1.diag() > 0);
  arma::mat L_P1(m, m, arma::fill::zeros);
  if (nonzero.n_elem > 0) {
    L_P1.submat(nonzero, nonzero) =
      arma::chol(P1.submat(nonzero, nonzero), "lower");
  }
  std::normal_distribution<> normal(0.0, 1.0);
  for (unsigned int i = 0; i < nsim; i++) {
    arma::vec um(m);
    for(unsigned int j = 0; j < m; j++) {
      um(j) = normal(engine);
    }
    alpha.slice(i).col(0) = a1 + L_P1 * um;
  }
  
  std::uniform_real_distribution<> unif(0.0, 1.0);
  arma::vec normalized_weights(nsim);
  double loglik = 0.0;
  
  if(arma::is_finite(y(0))) {
    weights.col(0) = log_obs_density(0, alpha);
    double max_weight = weights.col(0).max();
    weights.col(0) = arma::exp(weights.col(0) - max_weight);
    double sum_weights = arma::accu(weights.col(0));
    if(sum_weights > 0.0){
      normalized_weights = weights.col(0) / sum_weights;
    } else {
      return -std::numeric_limits<double>::infinity();
    }
    loglik = max_weight + std::log(sum_weights / nsim);
  } else {
    weights.col(0).ones();
    normalized_weights.fill(1.0 / nsim);
  }
  for (unsigned int t = 0; t < n; t++) {
    
    arma::vec r(nsim);
    for (unsigned int i = 0; i < nsim; i++) {
      r(i) = unif(engine);
    }
    
    indices.col(t) = stratified_sample(normalized_weights, r, nsim);
    
    arma::mat alphatmp(m, nsim);
    
    for (unsigned int i = 0; i < nsim; i++) {
      alphatmp.col(i) = alpha.slice(indices(i, t)).col(t);
    }
    
    for (unsigned int i = 0; i < nsim; i++) {
      arma::vec uk(k);
      for(unsigned int j = 0; j < k; j++) {
        uk(j) = normal(engine);
      }
      alpha.slice(i).col(t + 1) = C.col(t * Ctv) +
        T.slice(t * Ttv) * alphatmp.col(i) + R.slice(t * Rtv) * uk;
    }
    
    if ((t < (n - 1)) && arma::is_finite(y(t + 1))) {
      weights.col(t + 1) = log_obs_density(t + 1, alpha);
      
      double max_weight = weights.col(t + 1).max();
      weights.col(t + 1) = arma::exp(weights.col(t + 1) - max_weight);
      double sum_weights = arma::accu(weights.col(t + 1));
      if(sum_weights > 0.0){
        normalized_weights = weights.col(t + 1) / sum_weights;
      } else {
        return -std::numeric_limits<double>::infinity();
      }
      loglik += max_weight + std::log(sum_weights / nsim);
    } else {
      weights.col(t + 1).ones();
      normalized_weights.fill(1.0/nsim);
    }
  }
  // constant part of the log-likelihood
  switch(distribution) {
  case 0 :
    loglik += arma::uvec(arma::find_finite(y)).n_elem * norm_log_const(phi);
    break;
  case 1 : {
      arma::uvec finite_y(find_finite(y));
      loglik += poisson_log_const(y(finite_y), u(finite_y));
    } break;
  case 2 : {
    arma::uvec finite_y(find_finite(y));
    loglik += binomial_log_const(y(finite_y), u(finite_y));
  } break;
  case 3 : {
    arma::uvec finite_y(find_finite(y));
    loglik += negbin_log_const(y(finite_y), u(finite_y), phi);
  } break;
  }
  return loglik;
}
Exemple #3
0
double ung_ssm::psi_filter(const ugg_ssm& approx_model,
  const double approx_loglik, const arma::vec& scales,
  const unsigned int nsim, arma::cube& alpha, arma::mat& weights,
  arma::umat& indices) {
  
  arma::mat alphahat(m, n + 1);
  arma::cube Vt(m, m, n + 1);
  arma::cube Ct(m, m, n + 1);
  approx_model.smoother_ccov(alphahat, Vt, Ct);
  conditional_cov(Vt, Ct);
  
  std::normal_distribution<> normal(0.0, 1.0);
  
  
  for (unsigned int i = 0; i < nsim; i++) {
    arma::vec um(m);
    for(unsigned int j = 0; j < m; j++) {
      um(j) = normal(engine);
    }
    alpha.slice(i).col(0) = alphahat.col(0) + Vt.slice(0) * um;
  }
  
  std::uniform_real_distribution<> unif(0.0, 1.0);
  arma::vec normalized_weights(nsim);
  double loglik = 0.0;
  if(arma::is_finite(y(0))) {
    weights.col(0) = arma::exp(log_weights(approx_model, 0, alpha) - scales(0));
    double sum_weights = arma::accu(weights.col(0));
    if(sum_weights > 0.0){
      normalized_weights = weights.col(0) / sum_weights;
    } else {
      return -std::numeric_limits<double>::infinity();
    }
    loglik = approx_loglik + std::log(sum_weights / nsim);
  } else {
    weights.col(0).ones();
    normalized_weights.fill(1.0 / nsim);
    loglik = approx_loglik;
  }
  
  for (unsigned int t = 0; t < n; t++) {
    arma::vec r(nsim);
    for (unsigned int i = 0; i < nsim; i++) {
      r(i) = unif(engine);
    }
    indices.col(t) = stratified_sample(normalized_weights, r, nsim);
    
    arma::mat alphatmp(m, nsim);
    
    // for (unsigned int i = 0; i < nsim; i++) {
    //   alphatmp.col(i) = alpha.slice(i).col(t);
    // }
    for (unsigned int i = 0; i < nsim; i++) {
      alphatmp.col(i) = alpha.slice(indices(i, t)).col(t);
      //alpha.slice(i).col(t) = alphatmp.col(indices(i, t));
    }
    for (unsigned int i = 0; i < nsim; i++) {
      arma::vec um(m);
      for(unsigned int j = 0; j < m; j++) {
        um(j) = normal(engine);
      }
      alpha.slice(i).col(t + 1) = alphahat.col(t + 1) +
        Ct.slice(t + 1) * (alphatmp.col(i) - alphahat.col(t)) + Vt.slice(t + 1) * um;
    }
    
    if ((t < (n - 1)) && arma::is_finite(y(t + 1))) {
      weights.col(t + 1) =
        arma::exp(log_weights(approx_model, t + 1, alpha) - scales(t + 1));
      double sum_weights = arma::accu(weights.col(t + 1));
      if(sum_weights > 0.0){
        normalized_weights = weights.col(t + 1) / sum_weights;
      } else {
        return -std::numeric_limits<double>::infinity();
      }
      loglik += std::log(sum_weights / nsim);
    } else {
      weights.col(t + 1).ones();
      normalized_weights.fill(1.0 / nsim);
    }
  }
  return loglik;
}