double countingExperiment95CLUpperLimit (int nObserved, double bkgMean, double bkgSigma, int nToys=500) {
// expect nothing beyond 5 sigma
double bkgMaxExpected = bkgMean+5*bkgSigma; // 5 sigma
double signalMaxExpected = nObserved+5*sqrt(double(nObserved))-bkgMean+5*bkgSigma;
// variables
RooRealVar signal ("signal", "signal", 0, 0, signalMaxExpected);
RooRealVar bkg ("bkg", "bkg", bkgMean, 0, bkgMaxExpected);
RooRealVar flatUnit ("flatUnit","flatUnit",0.,1.);
// sets
RooArgSet nuisPar (bkg);
RooArgSet poi (signal);
// constants
RooRealVar bkgMeanVar ("bkgMean", "bkgMean", bkgMean);
RooRealVar bkgSigmaVar ("bkgSigma", "bkgSigma", bkgSigma);
// PDFs
RooUniform signalPdf ("signalPdf","signalPdf",flatUnit);
RooUniform backgroundPdf ("backgroundPdf","backgroundPdf",flatUnit);
RooAddPdf modelPdf ("model","model",RooArgList(signalPdf,backgroundPdf),RooArgList(signal,bkg));
RooExtendPdf modelBkgPdf ("modelBkg","modelBkg",backgroundPdf,bkg);
RooGaussian priorBkgPdf ("priorBkg","priorBkg",bkg,bkgMeanVar,bkgSigmaVar);
RooDataSet* data = modelPdf.generate(flatUnit, nObserved);
HybridCalculator hc(*data, modelPdf, modelBkgPdf, &nuisPar, &priorBkgPdf);
hc.SetTestStatistic(2); // # of events
hc.SetNumberOfToys(nToys);
hc.UseNuisance(true);
HypoTestInverter myInverter(hc,signal);
double targetP = 0.05; // 95% C.L.
myInverter.RunAutoScan(0, signalMaxExpected, targetP, 0.1*targetP);
HypoTestInverterResult* results = myInverter.GetInterval();
results->SetConfidenceLevel (1-2.*targetP);
double upperLimit = results->UpperLimit();
delete data;
// delete results;
return upperLimit;
}
void FitBias(TString CAT,TString CUT,float SIG,float BKG,int NTOYS)
{
gROOT->ForceStyle();
RooMsgService::instance().setSilentMode(kTRUE);
RooMsgService::instance().setStreamStatus(0,kFALSE);
RooMsgService::instance().setStreamStatus(1,kFALSE);
// -----------------------------------------
TFile *fTemplates = TFile::Open("templates_"+CUT+"_"+CAT+"_workspace.root");
RooWorkspace *wTemplates = (RooWorkspace*)fTemplates->Get("w");
RooRealVar *x = (RooRealVar*)wTemplates->var("mTop");
RooAbsPdf *pdf_signal = (RooAbsPdf*)wTemplates->pdf("ttbar_pdf_Nominal");
RooAbsPdf *pdf_bkg = (RooAbsPdf*)wTemplates->pdf("qcdCor_pdf");
TRandom *rnd = new TRandom();
rnd->SetSeed(0);
x->setBins(250);
RooPlot *frame;
TFile *outf;
if (NTOYS > 1) {
outf = TFile::Open("FitBiasToys_"+CUT+"_"+CAT+".root","RECREATE");
}
float nSigInj,nBkgInj,nSigFit,nBkgFit,eSigFit,eBkgFit,nll;
TTree *tr = new TTree("toys","toys");
tr->Branch("nSigInj",&nSigInj,"nSigInj/F");
tr->Branch("nSigFit",&nSigFit,"nSigFit/F");
tr->Branch("nBkgInj",&nBkgInj,"nBkgInj/F");
tr->Branch("nBkgFit",&nBkgFit,"nBkgFit/F");
tr->Branch("eSigFit",&eSigFit,"eSigFit/F");
tr->Branch("eBkgFit",&eBkgFit,"eBkgFit/F");
tr->Branch("nll" ,&nll ,"nll/F");
for(int itoy=0;itoy<NTOYS;itoy++) {
// generate pseudodataset
nSigInj = rnd->Poisson(SIG);
nBkgInj = rnd->Poisson(BKG);
RooRealVar *nSig = new RooRealVar("nSig","nSig",nSigInj);
RooRealVar *nBkg = new RooRealVar("nBkg","nBkg",nBkgInj);
RooAddPdf *model = new RooAddPdf("model","model",RooArgList(*pdf_signal,*pdf_bkg),RooArgList(*nSig,*nBkg));
RooDataSet *data = model->generate(*x,nSigInj+nBkgInj);
RooDataHist *roohist = new RooDataHist("roohist","roohist",RooArgList(*x),*data);
// build fit model
RooRealVar *nFitSig = new RooRealVar("nFitSig","nFitSig",SIG,0,10*SIG);
RooRealVar *nFitBkg = new RooRealVar("nFitBkg","nFitBkg",BKG,0,10*BKG);
RooAddPdf *modelFit = new RooAddPdf("modelFit","modelFit",RooArgList(*pdf_signal,*pdf_bkg),RooArgList(*nFitSig,*nFitBkg));
// fit the pseudo dataset
RooFitResult *res = modelFit->fitTo(*roohist,RooFit::Save(),RooFit::Extended(kTRUE));
//res->Print();
nSigFit = nFitSig->getVal();
nBkgFit = nFitBkg->getVal();
eSigFit = nFitSig->getError();
eBkgFit = nFitBkg->getError();
nll = res->minNll();
tr->Fill();
if (itoy % 100 == 0) {
cout<<"Toy #"<<itoy<<": injected = "<<nSigInj<<", fitted = "<<nSigFit<<", error = "<<eSigFit<<endl;
}
if (NTOYS == 1) {
frame = x->frame();
roohist->plotOn(frame);
model->plotOn(frame);
}
}
if (NTOYS == 1) {
TCanvas *can = new TCanvas("Toy","Toy",900,600);
frame->Draw();
}
else {
outf->cd();
tr->Write();
outf->Close();
fTemplates->Close();
}
}
PDF(TString chrg, double scale, bool addqcd, RooRealVar* x, RooRealVar* f1, RooRealVar *f2, bool redice){
TFile *data = new TFile("eWPol_Signal_Wjets.root");
TFile *fbkg= new TFile("eWPol_Signal_QCD.root");
TH1D *hsig, *hbkg;
if (chrg=="plus") {
mc1 = (TH1D*)data->Get(pHist1); mc2 = (TH1D*)data->Get(pHist2); mc3 = (TH1D*)data->Get(pHist3);
hsig = (TH1D*)data->Get(pHist_data); hsig->Rebin(rbin);
hbkg = (TH1D*)fbkg->Get(pHist_data); hbkg->Rebin(rbin);
} else {
mc1 = (TH1D*)data->Get(mHist1); mc2 = (TH1D*)data->Get(mHist2); mc3 = (TH1D*)data->Get(mHist3);
hsig = (TH1D*)data->Get(mHist_data); hsig->Rebin(rbin);
hbkg = (TH1D*)fbkg->Get(mHist_data); hbkg->Rebin(rbin);
}
mc1->Rebin(rbin); mc2->Rebin(rbin); mc3->Rebin(rbin);
TH1D *test = hsig->Clone();
// QCD background
Double_t nbkg=0;
ScaleErrors(hbkg,scale);
ScaleErrors(test,scale);
ScaleErrors(hsig,scale);
ScaleErrors(mc1,scale); ScaleErrors(mc2,scale); ScaleErrors(mc3,scale);
if(addqcd){
test->Add(hbkg); nbkg=hbkg->Integral();
}
stat=test->Integral();
Double_t f_sig=(hsig->Integral())/stat;
Double_t f_bkg=nbkg/stat;
// Import binned Data
data1 = new RooDataHist ("data1","dataset with ICvar",*x,mc1);
data2 = new RooDataHist ("data2","dataset with ICvar",*x,mc2);
data3 = new RooDataHist ("data3","dataset with ICvar",*x,mc3);
// Background template
data4 = new RooDataHist("data4","dataset with ICVar",*x,hbkg);
bkg = new RooHistPdf("bkg","bkg",*x,*data4);
// Helicity fractions
//3 = new RooRealVar("f_{0}","f3 fraction",100.,0.,100000.) ;
f3 = new RooRealVar("f_{0}","f3 fraction",0.3,0.,1.) ;
fs = new RooRealVar("f_{s}","f4 fraction",f_sig);//,0.,1.) ;
// Templates
h1 = new RooHistPdf("h1","h1",*x,*data1);
h2 = new RooHistPdf("h2","h2",*x,*data2);
h3 = new RooHistPdf("h3","h3",*x,*data3);
// Model which changes the interpretation of parameters
RooAddPdf *com = new RooAddPdf("cplus1","component 1",RooArgList(*h2,*h3),RooArgList(*f2)) ;
sig = new RooAddPdf("sig","component 1",RooArgList(*h1,*com),RooArgList(*f1)) ;
// Original Model (allows negative values of f0...)
//sig = new RooAddPdf("sig","component 1",RooArgList(*h1,*h2,*h3),RooArgList(*f1,*f2)) ;
// composite PDF
model = new RooAddPdf("model","model",RooArgList(*sig,*bkg),*fs);
// if (redice) {
test1=model->generate(*x,int(stat));
//} else {
rtest1 = new RooDataHist("data","dataset with LPvar",*x,test);
//}
}
// --- Parameters ---
RooRealVar sigmean("sigmean","B^{#pm} mass",5.28,5.20,5.30) ;
RooRealVar sigwidth("sigwidth","B^{#pm} width",0.0027,0.001,1.) ;
// --- Build Gaussian PDF ---
RooGaussian signal("signal","signal PDF",mes,sigmean,sigwidth) ;
// --- Build Argus background PDF ---
RooRealVar argpar("argpar","argus shape parameter",-20.0,-100.,-1.) ;
RooArgusBG background("background","Argus PDF",mes,RooConst(5.291),argpar) ;
// --- Construct signal+background PDF ---
RooRealVar nsig("nsig","#signal events",100,0.,10000) ;
RooRealVar nbkg("nbkg","#background events",100,0.,10000) ;
RooAddPdf model("model","g+a",RooArgList(signal,background),RooArgList(nsig,nbkg)) ;
// --- Generate a toyMC sample from composite PDF ---
RooDataSet *data = model.generate(mes,2000) ;
TFile* f= new TFile("rooFit.root","RECREATE");
TCanvas* cc = new TCanvas("cc","cc",800,600) ;
//TH1F* h=(TH1F*)f->Get("histo__mes");
//h->Rebin(2);
//RooDataHist* data=new RooDataHist("data", "data", mes, h);
//TFile* f= new TFile("rooFit.root","RECREATE");
//TH1F* h=data->createHistogram("histo",mes,Binning(100,5.2,5.3));
//h->Draw();
//h->Write();
//f->Close();
// -F-- Perform extended ML fit of composite PDF to toy data ---
void higgsMassFit(const int& mH, const std::string& mode = "exclusion", const bool& drawPlots = false, const int& nToys = 10000)
{
using namespace RooFit;
RooMsgService::instance().deleteStream(0);
RooMsgService::instance().deleteStream(1);
std::string varName = "lepNuW_m";
int step = 16;
char treeName[50];
sprintf(treeName, "ntu_%d", step);
float lumi = 1000.;
int nBins = 50;
double xMin = 0.;
double xMax = 1000.;
double xMin_signal = 0.;
double xMax_signal = 0.;
SetXSignal(xMin_signal,xMax_signal,mH);
RooRealVar x("x",varName.c_str(),xMin,xMax);
x.setRange("low", xMin, xMin_signal);
x.setRange("signal",xMin_signal,xMax_signal);
x.setRange("high", xMax_signal,xMax);
RooRealVar w("w","weight",0.,1000000000.);
char signalCut[50];
sprintf(signalCut,"x > %f && x < %f",xMin_signal,xMax_signal);
//-------------------
// define the outfile
char outFileName[50];
sprintf(outFileName,"higgsMassFit_H%d_%s.root",mH,mode.c_str());
TFile* outFile = new TFile(outFileName,"RECREATE");
outFile -> cd();
//-------------------
// define the infiles
char higgsMass[50];
sprintf(higgsMass,"%d",mH);
std::string BKGPath = "/grid_mnt/vol__vol1__u/llr/cms/abenagli/COLLISIONS7TeV/Fall10/VBFAnalysisPackage/data/VBFAnalysis_AK5PF_H" +
std::string(higgsMass) +
"_ET30_maxDeta_minDeta_Spring11_EGMu_noHiggsMassCut/";
std::string WJetsFolder = "WJetsToLNu_TuneZ2_7TeV-madgraph-tauola_Spring11-PU_S1_START311_V1G1-v1/";
std::string TTJetsFolder = "TTJets_TuneZ2_7TeV-madgraph-tauola_Spring11-PU_S1_START311_V1G1-v1/";
//std::string ZJetsFolder =
//std::string GJets_HT40To100Folder
//std::string GJets_HT100To200Folder
//std::string GJets_HT200Folder
//std::string WWFolder
//std::string WZFolder
//std::string TJets_schannelFolder
//std::string TJets_tchannelFolder
//std::string TJets_tWchannelFolder
std::string GluGluHToLNuQQFolder = "GluGluToHToWWToLNuQQ_M-" + std::string(higgsMass) + "_7TeV-powheg-pythia6_Spring11-PU_S1_START311_V1G1-v1/";
std::string GluGluHToTauNuQQFolder = "GluGluToHToWWToTauNuQQ_M-" + std::string(higgsMass) + "_7TeV-powheg-pythia6_Spring11-PU_S1_START311_V1G1-v1/";
std::string VBFHToLNuQQFolder = "VBF_HToWWToLNuQQ_M-" + std::string(higgsMass) + "_7TeV-powheg-pythia6_Spring11-PU_S1_START311_V1G1-v1/";
std::string VBFHToTauNuQQFolder = "VBF_HToWWToTauNuQQ_M-" + std::string(higgsMass) + "_7TeV-powheg-pythia6_Spring11-PU_S1_START311_V1G1-v1/";
//---------------------------------------
// define the background shape histograms
int nBKG = 2;
TH1F** BKGShapeHisto = new TH1F*[nBKG];
TH1F* BKGTotShapeHisto = new TH1F("BKGTotShapeHisto","",nBins,xMin,xMax);
THStack* BKGShapeStack = new THStack();
RooDataSet** rooBKGDataSet = new RooDataSet*[nBKG];
std::string* BKGNames = new std::string[nBKG];
BKGNames[1] = BKGPath+WJetsFolder+"VBFAnalysis_AK5PF.root";
BKGNames[0] = BKGPath+TTJetsFolder+"VBFAnalysis_AK5PF.root";
//BKGNames[1] = BKGPath+ZJetsFolder+"VBFAnalysis_AK5PF.root";
//BKGNames[2] = BKGPath+GJets_HT40To100Folder+"VBFAnalysis_AK5PF.root";
//BKGNames[3] = BKGPath+GJets_HT100To200Folder+"VBFAnalysis_AK5PF.root";
//BKGNames[4] = BKGPath+GJets_HT200Folder+"VBFAnalysis_AK5PF.root";
//BKGNames[6] = BKGPath+WWFolder+"VBFAnalysis_AK5PF.root";
//BKGNames[7] = BKGPath+WZFolder+"VBFAnalysis_AK5PF.root";
//BKGNames[8] = BKGPath+TJets_schannelFolder+"VBFAnalysis_AK5PF.root";
//BKGNames[9] = BKGPath+TJets_tchannelFolder+"VBFAnalysis_AK5PF.root";
//BKGNames[10] = BKGPath+TJets_tWchannelFolder+"VBFAnalysis_AK5PF.root";
std::string* BKGShortNames = new std::string[nBKG];
BKGShortNames[1] = "WJets";
BKGShortNames[0] = "TTJets";
//BKGShortNames[1] = "ZJets";
//BKGShortNames[2] = "GJets_HT40To100";
//BKGShortNames[3] = "GJets_HT100To200";
//BKGShortNames[4] = "GJets_HT200";
//BKGShortNames[6] = "WW";
//BKGShortNames[7] = "WZ";
//BKGShortNames[8] = "TJets_schannel";
//BKGShortNames[9] = "TJets_tchannel";
//BKGShortNames[10] = "TJets_tWchannel";
Color_t* BKGColors = new Color_t[nBKG];
BKGColors[1] = kOrange-708;
BKGColors[0] = kAzure-795;
//-----------------------------------
// define the signal shape histograms
int nSIG = 2;
TH1F* SIGShapeHisto = new TH1F("SIGShapeHisto","",4*nBins,xMin,xMax);
SIGShapeHisto -> Sumw2();
SIGShapeHisto -> SetLineWidth(1);
SIGShapeHisto -> SetLineStyle(1);
RooDataSet* rooSIGDataSet = new RooDataSet("rooSIGDataSet","",RooArgSet(x,w),WeightVar(w));
std::string* SIGNames = new std::string[nSIG];
SIGNames[0] = BKGPath+GluGluHToLNuQQFolder+"VBFAnalysis_AK5PF.root";
SIGNames[1] = BKGPath+VBFHToLNuQQFolder+"VBFAnalysis_AK5PF.root";
std::string* SIGShortNames = new std::string[nSIG];
SIGShortNames[1] = "ggH";
SIGShortNames[0] = "qqH";
//----------------------
// loop over backgrounds
std::cout << "***********************************************************************" << std::endl;
std::cout << ">>> Fill the background shapes" << std::endl;
for(int i = 0; i < nBKG; ++i)
{
TFile* inFile_BKGShape = TFile::Open((BKGNames[i]).c_str());
inFile_BKGShape -> cd();
TTree* BKGShapeTree = (TTree*)(inFile_BKGShape -> Get(treeName));
BKGShapeHisto[i] = new TH1F(("BKGShapeHisto_"+BKGShortNames[i]).c_str(),"",nBins,xMin,xMax);
enum EColor color = (enum EColor)(BKGColors[i]);
BKGShapeHisto[i] -> SetFillColor(color);
BKGShapeHisto[i] -> Sumw2();
rooBKGDataSet[i] = new RooDataSet(("rooBKGDataSet_"+BKGShortNames[i]).c_str(),"",RooArgSet(x,w),WeightVar(w));
TH1F* eventsHisto;
inFile_BKGShape -> GetObject("events", eventsHisto);
float totEvents = eventsHisto -> GetBinContent(1);
// set branch addresses
float crossSection;
float var;
BKGShapeTree -> SetBranchAddress("crossSection", &crossSection);
BKGShapeTree -> SetBranchAddress(varName.c_str(),&var);
// loop over the entries
for(int entry = 0; entry < BKGShapeTree->GetEntries(); ++entry)
{
BKGShapeTree -> GetEntry(entry);
x = var;
w = 1./totEvents*crossSection*lumi;
BKGShapeHisto[i] -> Fill(var, 1./totEvents*crossSection*lumi);
BKGTotShapeHisto -> Fill(var, 1./totEvents*crossSection*lumi);
rooBKGDataSet[i] -> add(RooArgSet(x,w));
}
BKGShapeStack -> Add(BKGShapeHisto[i]);
}
//------------------
// loop over signals
std::cout << ">>> Fill the signal shapes" << std::endl;
for(int i = 0; i < nSIG; ++i)
{
TFile* inFile_SIGShape = TFile::Open((SIGNames[i]).c_str());
inFile_SIGShape -> cd();
TTree* SIGShapeTree = (TTree*)(inFile_SIGShape -> Get(treeName));
TH1F* eventsHisto = (TH1F*)(inFile_SIGShape -> Get("events"));
float totEvents = eventsHisto -> GetBinContent(1);
// set branch addresses
float crossSection;
float var;
SIGShapeTree -> SetBranchAddress("crossSection", &crossSection);
SIGShapeTree -> SetBranchAddress(varName.c_str(),&var);
// loop over the entries
for(int entry = 0; entry < SIGShapeTree->GetEntries(); ++entry)
{
SIGShapeTree -> GetEntry(entry);
x = var;
w= 1./totEvents*crossSection*lumi;
SIGShapeHisto -> Fill(var, 1./totEvents*crossSection*lumi);
rooSIGDataSet -> add(RooArgSet(x,w));
}
}
//-----------------------------------
// draw the background + signal stack
if( drawPlots )
{
TCanvas* c1 = new TCanvas("BKGShapeStack","BKGShapeStack");
c1 -> SetGridx();
c1 -> SetGridy();
BKGShapeStack -> Draw("HIST");
SIGShapeHisto -> Draw("HIST,same");
char pngFileName[50];
sprintf(pngFileName,"BKGShapeStack_H%d_%s.png",mH,mode.c_str());
c1 -> Print(pngFileName,"png");
}
//---------------------------------
// define the bkg shape with roofit
std::cout << ">>> Define the background pdf" << std::endl;
RooKeysPdf** rooBKGPdf = new RooKeysPdf*[nBKG];
RooRealVar** rooNBKG = new RooRealVar*[nBKG];
RooRealVar* rooNBKGTot = new RooRealVar("rooNBKGTot","",BKGTotShapeHisto->Integral(),0.,1000000.);
for(int i = 0; i < nBKG; ++i)
{
rooBKGPdf[i] = new RooKeysPdf(("rooBKGPdf_"+BKGShortNames[i]).c_str(),"",x,*rooBKGDataSet[i]);
rooNBKG[i] = new RooRealVar(("rooNBKG_"+BKGShortNames[i]).c_str(),"",BKGShapeHisto[i]->Integral(),BKGShapeHisto[i]->Integral()),BKGShapeHisto[i]->Integral();
}
RooAddPdf* rooBKGTotPdf = new RooAddPdf("rooBKGTotPdf","",RooArgList(*rooBKGPdf[0],*rooBKGPdf[1]),RooArgList(*rooNBKG[0],*rooNBKG[1]));
//---------------------------------
// define the sig shape with roofit
std::cout << ">>> Define the signal pdf" << std::endl;
RooKeysPdf* rooSIGPdf = new RooKeysPdf("rooSIGPdf","",x,*rooSIGDataSet);
RooRealVar* rooNSIG = new RooRealVar("rooNSIG","",1.,-1000000.,1000000.);
//---------------------------------
// define the tot shape with roofit
std::cout << ">>> Define the total pdf" << std::endl;
RooAddPdf* rooTotPdf = NULL;
if( mode == "exclusion") rooTotPdf = new RooAddPdf("rooTotPdf","",RooArgList(*rooBKGTotPdf),RooArgList(*rooNBKGTot));
if( mode == "discovery") rooTotPdf = new RooAddPdf("rooTotPdf","",RooArgList(*rooBKGTotPdf,*rooSIGPdf),RooArgList(*rooNBKGTot,*rooNSIG));
//----
// plot
if( drawPlots )
{
TCanvas* c2 = new TCanvas("rooTotPdf","rooTotPdf");
c2 -> SetGridx();
c2 -> SetGridy();
RooPlot* rooBKGPlot = x.frame();
rooBKGTotPdf -> plotOn(rooBKGPlot,LineColor(kBlack));
enum EColor color = (enum EColor)(BKGColors[0]);
rooBKGTotPdf -> plotOn(rooBKGPlot,Components(("rooBKGPdf_"+BKGShortNames[0]).c_str()),LineColor(color));
color = (enum EColor)(BKGColors[1]);
rooBKGTotPdf -> plotOn(rooBKGPlot,Components(("rooBKGPdf_"+BKGShortNames[1]).c_str()),LineColor(color));
rooSIGPdf -> plotOn(rooBKGPlot,LineColor(kBlack),LineStyle(1),LineWidth(1));
rooBKGPlot->Draw();
TH1F* BKGShapeHistoNorm = (TH1F*) BKGTotShapeHisto -> Clone();
BKGShapeHistoNorm -> Scale(1./BKGTotShapeHisto->Integral()/nBKG);
BKGShapeHistoNorm -> Draw("HIST,same");
char pngFileName[50];
sprintf(pngFileName,"BKGShapeNorm_H%d_%s.png",mH,mode.c_str());
c2 -> Print(pngFileName,"png");
}
//------------------------
// generate toy experiment
std::cout << "***********************************************************************" << std::endl;
std::cout << ">>> 1st toy experiment - " << mode << " mode" << std::endl;
int NBKGToy = int(BKGTotShapeHisto->Integral());
int NSIGToy = 0;
if( mode == "discovery" ) NSIGToy = int(SIGShapeHisto->Integral());
RooDataSet* rooBKGToyDataSet = rooBKGTotPdf->generate(RooArgSet(x),NBKGToy);
RooDataSet* rooSIGToyDataSet = rooSIGPdf->generate(RooArgSet(x),NSIGToy);
rooBKGToyDataSet -> append(*rooSIGToyDataSet);
float NBKGToy_signal = rooBKGToyDataSet->sumEntries(signalCut);
float NBKGToy_signal_fit = 0.;
// fit
if( mode == "exclusion" ) rooTotPdf -> fitTo(*rooBKGToyDataSet,Extended(kTRUE),PrintLevel(-1),Range("low,high"));
if( mode == "discovery" ) rooTotPdf -> fitTo(*rooBKGToyDataSet,Extended(kTRUE),PrintLevel(-1));
// count events
if( mode == "exclusion" )
{
RooAbsReal* rooTotIntegral = rooTotPdf -> createIntegral(x,NormSet(x),Range("signal"));
NBKGToy_signal_fit = rooTotIntegral->getVal() * rooNBKGTot->getVal();
std::cout << ">>>>>> BKG toy events (true) in signal region in " << lumi << "/pb: " << NBKGToy_signal << std::endl;
std::cout << ">>>>>> BKG toy events (fit) in signal region in " << lumi << "/pb: " << NBKGToy_signal_fit << std::endl;
}
if( mode == "discovery" )
{
std::cout << ">>>>>> BKG toy events (true) in " << lumi << "/pb: " << NBKGToy << std::endl;
std::cout << ">>>>>> BKG toy events (fit) in " << lumi << "/pb: " << rooNBKGTot->getVal() << std::endl;
std::cout << ">>>>>> SIG toy events (true) in " << lumi << "/pb: " << NSIGToy << std::endl;
std::cout << ">>>>>> SIG toy events (fit) in " << lumi << "/pb: " << rooNSIG->getVal() << std::endl;
}
if( drawPlots )
{
TCanvas* c3 = new TCanvas("TOY","TOY");
c3 -> SetGridx();
c3 -> SetGridy();
RooPlot* rooTOYPlot = x.frame();
rooBKGToyDataSet -> plotOn(rooTOYPlot,MarkerSize(0.7));
rooTotPdf -> plotOn(rooTOYPlot, LineColor(kRed));
rooTotPdf -> plotOn(rooTOYPlot, Components("rooSIGPdf"), LineColor(kRed));
rooTOYPlot->Draw();
char pngFileName[50];
sprintf(pngFileName,"BKGToyFit_H%d_%s.png",mH,mode.c_str());
c3 -> Print(pngFileName,"png");
}
//-------------------------
// generate toy experiments
TH1F* h_BKGRes = new TH1F("h_BKGRes","",200,-400,400);
TH1F* h_SIGRes = new TH1F("h_SIGRes","",200,-400,400);
TRandom3 B;
TRandom3 S;
for(int j = 0; j < nToys; ++j)
{
if( j%100 == 0 )
std::cout << ">>>>>> generating toy experiment " << j << std::endl;
NBKGToy = B.Poisson(BKGTotShapeHisto->Integral());
NSIGToy = 0;
if( mode == "discovery" ) NSIGToy = S.Poisson(SIGShapeHisto->Integral());
rooBKGToyDataSet = rooBKGTotPdf->generate(RooArgSet(x),NBKGToy);
rooSIGToyDataSet = rooSIGPdf->generate(RooArgSet(x),NSIGToy);
rooBKGToyDataSet -> append(*rooSIGToyDataSet);
NBKGToy_signal = rooBKGToyDataSet->sumEntries(signalCut);
NBKGToy_signal_fit = 0.;
// fit
if( mode == "exclusion" ) rooTotPdf -> fitTo(*rooBKGToyDataSet,Extended(kTRUE),PrintLevel(-1),Range("low,high"));
if( mode == "discovery" ) rooTotPdf -> fitTo(*rooBKGToyDataSet,Extended(kTRUE),PrintLevel(-1));
// count events
if( mode == "exclusion" )
{
RooAbsReal* rooTotIntegral = rooTotPdf -> createIntegral(x,NormSet(x),Range("signal"));
NBKGToy_signal_fit = rooTotIntegral->getVal() * rooNBKGTot->getVal();
h_BKGRes -> Fill(NBKGToy_signal_fit - NBKGToy_signal);
h_SIGRes -> Fill(0.);
}
if( mode == "discovery" )
{
h_BKGRes -> Fill(rooNBKGTot->getVal() - NBKGToy);
h_SIGRes -> Fill(rooNSIG->getVal() - NSIGToy);
}
}
outFile -> cd();
h_BKGRes -> Write();
h_SIGRes -> Write();
outFile -> Close();
}
double RunHypoTest(char *smwwFileName, char *ttbarFileName, char *wp3jetsFileName, char *wp4jetsFileName, char *opsFileName, char *outputFileName, double lambda) {
TFile *smwwFile = new TFile(smwwFileName);
TFile *ttbarFile = new TFile(ttbarFileName);
TFile *wp3jetsFile = new TFile(wp3jetsFileName);
TFile *wp4jetsFile = new TFile(wp4jetsFileName);
TFile *opsFile = new TFile(opsFileName);
TFile *outputFile = new TFile(outputFileName, "UPDATE");
TH1F *smww = (TH1F*)smwwFile->Get(WW_MASS_HISTOGRAM_NAME);
TH1F *ttbar = (TH1F*)ttbarFile->Get(WW_MASS_HISTOGRAM_NAME);
TH1F *wp3jets = (TH1F*)wp3jetsFile->Get(WW_MASS_HISTOGRAM_NAME);
TH1F *wp4jets = (TH1F*)wp4jetsFile->Get(WW_MASS_HISTOGRAM_NAME);
//Histogram of ww-scattering with effective operator contributions
TH1F *ops = (TH1F*)opsFile->Get(WW_MASS_HISTOGRAM_NAME);
RooRealVar *mww = new RooRealVar("mww", "M_{WW}", 600, 2500, "GeV");
RooDataHist smData("smData", "smData", RooArgList(*mww), smww);
RooDataHist opsData("opsData", "opsData", RooArgList(*mww), ops);
RooDataHist ttbarData("ttbarData", "ttbarData", RooArgList(*mww), ttbar);
RooDataHist wp3jetsData("wp3jetsData", "wp3jetsData", RooArgList(*mww), wp3jets);
RooDataHist wp4jetsData("wp4jetsData", "wp4jetsData", RooArgList(*mww), wp4jets);
/*
RooAbsPdf *opsModel;
if (lambda == 400) {
opsModel = SpecialCaseModel(&opsData, mww, (char*)"ops");
}
else {
opsModel = MakeModel(&opsData, mww, (char*)"ops");
}*/
RooAbsPdf *opsModel = MakeModel(&opsData, mww, (char*)"ops");
//RooPlot *xframe = mww->frame();
//opsData.plotOn(xframe);
//opsModel->plotOn(xframe);
//printf("Chi-squared for lambda = %f: = %f\n", lambda, xframe->chiSquare("opsModel", "opsData", 3));
RooAbsPdf *smModel = MakeModelNoSignal(&smData, mww, (char*)"sm");
RooAbsPdf *ttbarModel = MakeModelNoSignal(&ttbarData, mww, (char*)"ttbar");
RooAbsPdf *wp3jetsModel = MakeModelNoSignal(&wp3jetsData, mww, (char*)"wp3jets");
RooAbsPdf *wp4jetsModel = MakeModelNoSignal(&wp4jetsData, mww, (char*)"wp4jets");
TCanvas *canvas = new TCanvas(opsFileName);
RooPlot *frame = mww->frame();
frame->SetTitle("");
//smData.plotOn(frame, RooFit::LineColor(kBlack), RooFit::Name("smData"));
//smModel->plotOn(frame, RooFit::LineColor(kBlue), RooFit::Name("smModel"));
//ttbarModel->plotOn(frame, RooFit::LineColor(kRed), RooFit::Name("ttbarModel"));
//wp3jetsModel->plotOn(frame, RooFit::LineColor(kYellow), RooFit::Name("wpjetsModel"));
opsData.plotOn(frame);
opsModel->plotOn(frame, RooFit::LineColor(kBlue), RooFit::Name("opsModel"));
//leg->AddEntry(frame->findObject("smModel"), "SM Model", "lep");
//leg->AddEntry(frame->findObject("ttbarModel"), "TTBar Model", "lep");
//leg->AddEntry(frame->findObject("wp3jetsModel"), "WP3Jets Model", "lep");
//leg->AddEntry(frame->findObject("opsModel"), "Effective Operator Model", "lep");
frame->Draw();
canvas->Write();
Double_t ww_x = WW_CROSS_SECTION * smww->GetEntries();
Double_t ttbar_x = TTBAR_CROSS_SECTION * ttbar->GetEntries();
Double_t wp3jets_x = WP3JETS_CROSS_SECTION * wp3jets->GetEntries();
Double_t wp4jets_x = WP4JETS_CROSS_SECTION * wp4jets->GetEntries();
Double_t ttbar_weight = ttbar_x/(ttbar_x + wp3jets_x + wp4jets_x + ww_x);
Double_t wp3jets_weight = wp3jets_x/(wp3jets_x + ttbar_x + ww_x);
Double_t wp4jets_weight = wp4jets_x/(wp4jets_x + ttbar_x + ww_x);
RooRealVar *ttbarWeight = new RooRealVar("ttbarWeight", "ttbarWeight", 0.0, 1.0, ttbar_weight);
RooRealVar *wp3jetsWeight = new RooRealVar("wp3jetsWeight", "wp3jetsWeight", 0.0, 1.0, wp3jets_weight);
RooRealVar *wp4jetsWeight = new RooRealVar("wp4jetsWeight", "wp4jetsWeight", 0.0, 1.0, wp4jets_weight);
ttbarWeight->setConstant();
wp3jetsWeight->setConstant();
wp4jetsWeight->setConstant();
RooRealVar *mu = new RooRealVar("mu", "mu", 0.0, 1.0, "");
RooAddPdf *wwModel = new RooAddPdf("wwModel", "u*effective_ww + (1-u)*SM_WW",
RooArgList(*opsModel, *smModel), RooArgList(*mu), kTRUE);
RooAddPdf *model = new RooAddPdf("model", "Full model",
RooArgList(*ttbarModel, *wp3jetsModel, *wp4jetsModel, *wwModel),
RooArgList(*ttbarWeight, *wp3jetsWeight, *wp4jetsWeight), kTRUE);
//Generate data under the alternate hypothesis
mu->setVal(1.0);
int nTestSetEvents = WW_CROSS_SECTION * TOTAL_INTEGRATED_LUMINOSITY;
RooAbsData *generatedData = model->generate(*mww, nTestSetEvents);
TCanvas *canvas2 = new TCanvas("CombinedModels");
RooPlot *frame2 = mww->frame();
//wwModel->plotOn(frame2, RooFit::LineColor(kRed), RooFit::Name("wwModel"));
//generatedData->plotOn(frame2);
mu->setVal(0.0);
model->plotOn(frame2, RooFit::LineColor(kBlue), RooFit::Name("nullModel"));
mu->setVal(1.0);
model->plotOn(frame2, RooFit::LineColor(kRed), RooFit::Name("altModel"));
TLegend *leg2 = new TLegend(0.65,0.73,0.86,0.87);
//leg->AddEntry(frame2->findObject("wwModel"), "SM WW Scattering model with background",
// "lep");
leg2->AddEntry(frame2->findObject("nullModel"),
"SM + Background", "lep");
leg2->AddEntry(frame2->findObject("altModel"),
"Effective Operator + Background", "lep");
frame2->SetTitle("");
frame2->GetXaxis()->SetTitle("M_{WW} (GeV)");
frame2->GetYaxis()->SetTitle("");
frame2->Draw();
leg2->Draw();
canvas2->Write();
outputFile->Close();
RooArgSet poi(*mu);
RooArgSet *nullParams = (RooArgSet*) poi.snapshot();
nullParams->setRealValue("mu", 0.0);
RooStats::ProfileLikelihoodCalculator plc(*generatedData, *model, poi, 0.05, nullParams);
RooStats::HypoTestResult* htr = plc.GetHypoTest();
std::cerr << "P Value = " << htr->NullPValue() << "\n";
return htr->Significance();
}
RooChebychev BkgPDF("BkgPDF","BkgPDF",mass,RooArgSet(a0,a1));
//Total first PDF
RooRealVar frac1("frac1","Fraction for first PDF",0.6,0.,1.);
RooAddPdf totPDF1("totPDF1","Total PDF 1",RooArgList(SigGauss1,BkgPDF),RooArgList(frac1));
//Build the second signal PDF
RooRealVar sigma2("sigma2","Sigma of second signal gaussian",2.,0.001,4.);
RooGaussian SigGauss2("SigGauss2","Second signal gaussian",mass,mean1,sigma2);
//Total second PDF
RooRealVar frac2("frac2","Fraction for second PDF",0.4,0.,1.);
RooAddPdf totPDF2("totPDF2","Total PDF 2",RooArgList(SigGauss2,BkgPDF),RooArgList(frac2));
//Generate the two samples
RooDataSet *data1 = totPDF1.generate(RooArgSet(mass),1000);
RooDataSet *data2 = totPDF2.generate(RooArgSet(mass),2000);
RooCategory SigCat("SigCat","Signal categories");
SigCat.defineType("Signal1");
SigCat.defineType("Signal2");
RooDataSet combinedData("combinedData","The combined data",mass,RooFit::Index(SigCat),RooFit::Import("Signal1",*data1),RooFit::Import("Signal2",*data2));
//Construct the simultaneous PDF
RooSimultaneous simPdf("simPdf","The total simultaneous PDF",SigCat);
simPdf.addPdf(totPDF1,"Signal1");
simPdf.addPdf(totPDF2,"Signal2");
//Do the fitting
simPdf.fitTo(combinedData);
