void addNuisanceWithToys(std::string iFileName,std::string iChannel,std::string iBkg,std::string iEnergy,std::string iName,std::string iDir,bool iRebin=true,bool iVarBin=false,int iFitModel=1,int iFitModel1=1,double iFirst=150,double iLast=1500,std::string iSigMass="800",double iSigScale=0.1,int iNToys=1000) {
std::cout << "======> " << iDir << "/" << iBkg << " -- " << iFileName << std::endl;
if(iVarBin) std::cout << "option not implemented yet!";
if(iVarBin) return;
//double lFirst = 200;
//double lLast = 1500;
double lFirst = iFirst;
double lLast = iLast;
std::cout << "===================================================================================================================================================" <<std::endl;
std::cout << "Using Initial fit model: " << iFitModel << ", fitting range: " << iFirst << "-" << iLast << " , using alternative fit model: " << iFitModel1 << std::endl;
std::cout << "===================================================================================================================================================" <<std::endl;
TFile *lFile = new TFile(iFileName.c_str());
TH1F *lH0 = (TH1F*) lFile->Get((iDir+"/"+iBkg).c_str());
TH1F *lData = (TH1F*) lFile->Get((iDir+"/data_obs").c_str());
TH1F *lSig = 0;
// for now, use bbH signal for testing in b-tag and ggH in no-btag
if(iDir.find("_btag") != std::string::npos) lSig = (TH1F*)lFile->Get((iDir+"/bbH"+iSigMass+"_fine_binning").c_str());
else lSig = (TH1F*)lFile->Get((iDir+"/ggH"+iSigMass+"_fine_binning").c_str());
TH1F *lH0Clone = (TH1F*)lH0->Clone("lH0Clone"); // binning too fine as of now? start by rebinning
TH1F *lDataClone = (TH1F*)lData->Clone("lDataClone");
TH1F *lSigClone = (TH1F*)lSig->Clone("lSigClone");
// lH0Clone->Rebin(2);
// lDataClone->Rebin(2);
// lSigClone->Rebin(2);
lSig->Rebin(10);
//Define the fit function
RooRealVar lM("m","m" ,0,5000);
lM.setRange(lFirst,lLast);
RooRealVar lA("a","a" ,50, 0.1,200);
RooRealVar lB("b","b" ,0.0 , -10.5,10.5);
RooRealVar lA1("a1","a1" ,50, 0.1,1000);
RooRealVar lB1("b1","b1" ,0.0 , -10.5,10.5);
RooDataHist *pH0 = new RooDataHist("Data","Data" ,RooArgList(lM),lH0);
double lNB0 = lH0->Integral(lH0->FindBin(lFirst),lH0->FindBin(lLast));
double lNSig0 = lSig->Integral(lSig->FindBin(lFirst),lSig->FindBin(lLast));
//lNB0=500;
// lNSig0=500;
lSig->Scale(iSigScale*lNB0/lNSig0); // scale signal to iSigScale*(Background yield), could try other options
lNSig0 = lSig->Integral(lSig->FindBin(lFirst),lSig->FindBin(lLast)); // readjust norm of signal hist
//Generate the "default" fit model
RooGenericPdf *lFit = 0; lFit = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","exp(-m/(a+b*m))",RooArgList(lM,lA,lB));
if(iFitModel == 1) lFit = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","exp(-a*pow(m,b))",RooArgList(lM,lA,lB));
if(iFitModel == 1) {lA.setVal(0.3); lB.setVal(0.5);}
if(iFitModel == 2) lFit = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","a*exp(b*m)",RooArgList(lM,lA,lB));
if(iFitModel == 2) {lA.setVal(0.01); lA.setRange(0,10); }
if(iFitModel == 3) lFit = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","a/pow(m,b)",RooArgList(lM,lA,lB));
// Generate the alternative model
RooGenericPdf *lFit1 = 0; lFit1 = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","exp(-m/(a1+b1*m))",RooArgList(lM,lA1,lB1));
if(iFitModel1 == 1) lFit1 = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","exp(-a1*pow(m,b1))",RooArgList(lM,lA1,lB1));
if(iFitModel1 == 1) {lA1.setVal(0.3); lB1.setVal(0.5);}
if(iFitModel1 == 2) lFit1 = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","a1*exp(b1*m)",RooArgList(lM,lA1,lB1));
if(iFitModel1 == 2) {lA1.setVal(0.01); lA1.setRange(0,10); }
if(iFitModel1 == 3) lFit1 = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","a1/pow(m,b1)",RooArgList(lM,lA1,lB1));
//=============================================================================================================================================
//Perform the tail fit and generate the shift up and down histograms
//=============================================================================================================================================
RooFitResult *lRFit = 0;
lRFit = lFit->fitTo(*pH0,RooFit::Save(kTRUE),RooFit::Range(lFirst,lLast),RooFit::Strategy(0));
TMatrixDSym lCovMatrix = lRFit->covarianceMatrix();
TMatrixD lEigVecs(2,2); lEigVecs = TMatrixDSymEigen(lCovMatrix).GetEigenVectors();
TVectorD lEigVals(2); lEigVals = TMatrixDSymEigen(lCovMatrix).GetEigenValues();
cout << " Ve---> " << lEigVecs(0,0) << " -- " << lEigVecs(1,0) << " -- " << lEigVecs(0,1) << " -- " << lEigVecs(1,1) << endl;
cout << " Co---> " << lCovMatrix(0,0) << " -- " << lCovMatrix(1,0) << " -- " << lCovMatrix(0,1) << " -- " << lCovMatrix(1,1) << endl;
double lACentral = lA.getVal();
double lBCentral = lB.getVal();
lEigVals(0) = sqrt(lEigVals(0));
lEigVals(1) = sqrt(lEigVals(1));
cout << "===> " << lEigVals(0) << " -- " << lEigVals(1) << endl;
TH1F* lH = (TH1F*) lFit->createHistogram("fit" ,lM,RooFit::Binning(lH0->GetNbinsX(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmin(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmax()));
lA.setVal(lACentral + lEigVals(0)*lEigVecs(0,0));
lB.setVal(lBCentral + lEigVals(0)*lEigVecs(1,0));
TH1F* lHUp = (TH1F*) lFit->createHistogram("Up" ,lM,RooFit::Binning(lH0->GetNbinsX(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmin(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmax()));
lA.setVal(lACentral - lEigVals(0)*lEigVecs(0,0));
lB.setVal(lBCentral - lEigVals(0)*lEigVecs(1,0));
TH1F* lHDown = (TH1F*) lFit->createHistogram("Down",lM,RooFit::Binning(lH0->GetNbinsX(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmin(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmax()));
lA.setVal(lACentral + lEigVals(1)*lEigVecs(0,1));
lB.setVal(lBCentral + lEigVals(1)*lEigVecs(1,1));
TH1F* lHUp1 = (TH1F*) lFit->createHistogram("Up1",lM,RooFit::Binning(lH0->GetNbinsX(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmin(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmax()));
lA.setVal(lACentral - lEigVals(1)*lEigVecs(0,1));
lB.setVal(lBCentral - lEigVals(1)*lEigVecs(1,1));
TH1F* lHDown1 = (TH1F*) lFit->createHistogram("Down1",lM,RooFit::Binning(lH0->GetNbinsX(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmin(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmax()));
std::string lNuisance1 = iBkg+"_"+"CMS_"+iName+"1_" + iChannel + "_" + iEnergy;
std::string lNuisance2 = iBkg+"_"+"CMS_"+iName+"2_" + iChannel + "_" + iEnergy;
lHUp = merge(lNuisance1 + "Up" ,lFirst,lH0,lHUp);
lHDown = merge(lNuisance1 + "Down" ,lFirst,lH0,lHDown);
lHUp1 = merge(lNuisance2 + "Up" ,lFirst,lH0,lHUp1);
lHDown1 = merge(lNuisance2 + "Down" ,lFirst,lH0,lHDown1);
lH = merge(lH0->GetName() ,lFirst,lH0,lH);
//=============================================================================================================================================
//=============================================================================================================================================
//Set the variables A and B to the final central values from the tail fit
lA.setVal(lACentral);
lB.setVal(lBCentral);
// lA.removeRange();
// lB.removeRange();
//Generate the background pdf corresponding to the final result of the tail fit
RooGenericPdf *lFitFinal = 0; lFitFinal = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","exp(-m/(a+b*m))",RooArgList(lM,lA,lB));
if(iFitModel == 1) lFitFinal = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","exp(-a*pow(m,b))",RooArgList(lM,lA,lB));
if(iFitModel == 2) lFitFinal = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","a*exp(b*m)",RooArgList(lM,lA,lB));
if(iFitModel == 3) lFitFinal = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","a/pow(m,b)",RooArgList(lM,lA,lB));
//=============================================================================================================================================
//Perform the tail fit with the alternative fit function (once initially, before allowing tail fit to float in toy fit).
//=============================================================================================================================================
RooFitResult *lRFit1 = 0;
//lRFit1=lFit1->fitTo(*pH0,RooFit::Save(kTRUE),RooFit::Range(iFirst,iLast),RooFit::Strategy(0));
lRFit1=lFit1->fitTo(*pH0,RooFit::Save(kTRUE),RooFit::Range(200,1500),RooFit::Strategy(0));
//Generate the background pdf corresponding to the result of the alternative tail fit
RooGenericPdf *lFit1Final = 0; lFit1Final = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","exp(-m/(a1+b1*m))",RooArgList(lM,lA1,lB1));
if(iFitModel1 == 1) lFit1Final = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","exp(-a1*pow(m,b1))",RooArgList(lM,lA1,lB1));
if(iFitModel1 == 2) lFit1Final = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","a1*exp(b1*m)",RooArgList(lM,lA1,lB1));
if(iFitModel1 == 3) lFit1Final = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","a1/pow(m,b1)",RooArgList(lM,lA1,lB1));
// lA1.removeRange();
// lB1.removeRange();
//=============================================================================================================================================
//Define RooRealVar for the normalization of the signal and background, starting from the initial integral of the input histograms
lM.setRange(300,1500);
RooRealVar lNB("nb","nb",lNB0,0,10000);
RooRealVar lNSig("nsig","nsig",lNSig0,-1000,1000);
//Define a PDF for the signal histogram lSig
RooDataHist *pS = new RooDataHist("sigH","sigH",RooArgList(lM),lSig);
RooHistPdf *lSPdf = new RooHistPdf ("sigPdf","sigPdf",lM,*pS);
//Define generator and fit functions for the RooMCStudy
RooAddPdf *lGenMod = new RooAddPdf ("genmod","genmod",RooArgList(*lFitFinal ,*lSPdf),RooArgList(lNB,lNSig));
RooAddPdf *lFitMod = new RooAddPdf ("fitmod","fitmod",RooArgList(*lFit1Final,*lSPdf),RooArgList(lNB,lNSig));
//Generate plot of the signal and background models going into the toy generation
RooPlot* plot=lM.frame();
lGenMod->plotOn(plot);
lGenMod->plotOn(plot,RooFit::Components(*lSPdf),RooFit::LineColor(2));
TCanvas* lC11 = new TCanvas("pdf","pdf",600,600) ;
lC11->cd();
plot->Draw();
lC11->SaveAs(("SBModel_"+iBkg+"_" + iDir + "_" + iEnergy+".pdf").c_str());
std::cout << "===================================================================================================================================================" <<std::endl;
std::cout << "FIT PARAMETERS BEFORE ROOMCSTUDY: lA: " << lA.getVal() << " lB: " << lB.getVal() << " lA1: " << lA1.getVal() << " lB1: " << lB1.getVal() << std::endl;
std::cout << "===================================================================================================================================================" <<std::endl;
RooMCStudy *lToy = new RooMCStudy(*lGenMod,lM,RooFit::FitModel(*lFitMod),RooFit::Binned(kTRUE),RooFit::Silence(),RooFit::Extended(kTRUE),RooFit::Verbose(kTRUE),RooFit::FitOptions(RooFit::Save(kTRUE),RooFit::Strategy(0)));
// Generate and fit iNToys toy samples
std::cout << "Number of background events: " << lNB0 << " Number of signal events: " << lNSig0 << " Sum: " << lNB0+lNSig0 << std::endl;
//=============================================================================================================================================
// Generate and fit toys
//=============================================================================================================================================
lToy->generateAndFit(iNToys,lNB0+lNSig0,kTRUE);
std::cout << "===================================================================================================================================================" <<std::endl;
std::cout << "FIT PARAMETERS AFTER ROOMCSTUDY: lA: " << lA.getVal() << " lB: " << lB.getVal() << " lA1: " << lA1.getVal() << " lB1: " << lB1.getVal() << std::endl;
std::cout << "===================================================================================================================================================" <<std::endl;
//=============================================================================================================================================
// Generate plots relevant to the toy fit
//=============================================================================================================================================
RooPlot* lFrame1 = lToy->plotPull(lNSig,-5,5,100,kTRUE);
lFrame1->SetTitle("distribution of pulls on signal yield from toys");
lFrame1->SetXTitle("N_{sig} pull");
TCanvas* lC00 = new TCanvas("pulls","pulls",600,600) ;
lC00->cd();
lFrame1->GetYaxis()->SetTitleOffset(1.2);
lFrame1->GetXaxis()->SetTitleOffset(1.0);
lFrame1->Draw() ;
lC00->SaveAs(("sig_pulls_toyfits_"+iBkg+"_" + iDir + "_" + iEnergy+".png").c_str());
RooPlot* lFrame2 = lToy->plotParam(lA1);
lFrame2->SetTitle("distribution of values of parameter 1 (a) after toy fit");
lFrame2->SetXTitle("Parameter 1 (a)");
TCanvas* lC01 = new TCanvas("valA","valA",600,600) ;
lFrame2->Draw() ;
lC01->SaveAs(("valA_toyfits_"+iBkg+"_" + iDir + "_" + iEnergy+".png").c_str());
RooPlot* lFrame3 = lToy->plotParam(lB1);
lFrame3->SetTitle("distribution of values of parameter 2 (b) after toy fit");
lFrame3->SetXTitle("Parameter 2 (b)");
TCanvas* lC02 = new TCanvas("valB","valB",600,600) ;
lFrame3->Draw() ;
lC02->SaveAs(("valB_toyfits_"+iBkg+"_" + iDir + "_" + iEnergy+".png").c_str());
RooPlot* lFrame6 = lToy->plotNLL(0,1000,100);
lFrame6->SetTitle("-log(L)");
lFrame6->SetXTitle("-log(L)");
TCanvas* lC05 = new TCanvas("logl","logl",600,600) ;
lFrame6->Draw() ;
lC05->SaveAs(("logL_toyfits_"+iBkg+"_" + iDir + "_" + iEnergy+".png").c_str());
RooPlot* lFrame7 = lToy->plotParam(lNSig);
lFrame7->SetTitle("distribution of values of N_{sig} after toy fit");
lFrame7->SetXTitle("N_{sig}");
TCanvas* lC06 = new TCanvas("Nsig","Nsig",600,600) ;
lFrame7->Draw() ;
lC06->SaveAs(("NSig_toyfits_"+iBkg+"_" + iDir + "_" + iEnergy+".png").c_str());
RooPlot* lFrame8 = lToy->plotParam(lNB);
lFrame8->SetTitle("distribution of values of N_{bkg} after toy fit");
lFrame8->SetXTitle("N_{bkg}");
TCanvas* lC07 = new TCanvas("Nbkg","Nbkg",600,600) ;
lFrame8->Draw() ;
lC07->SaveAs(("Nbkg_toyfits_"+iBkg+"_" + iDir + "_" + iEnergy+".png").c_str());
if(iRebin) {
const int lNBins = lData->GetNbinsX();
double *lAxis = getAxis(lData);
lH0 = rebin(lH0 ,lNBins,lAxis);
lH = rebin(lH ,lNBins,lAxis);
lHUp = rebin(lHUp ,lNBins,lAxis);
lHDown = rebin(lHDown ,lNBins,lAxis);
lHUp1 = rebin(lHUp1 ,lNBins,lAxis);
lHDown1 = rebin(lHDown1,lNBins,lAxis);
}
// we dont need this bin errors since we do not use them (fit tails replaces bin-by-bin error!), therefore i set all errors to 0, this also saves us from modifying the add_bbb_error.py script in which I otherwise would have to include a option for adding bbb only in specific ranges
int lMergeBin = lH->GetXaxis()->FindBin(iFirst);
for(int i0 = lMergeBin; i0 < lH->GetNbinsX()+1; i0++){
lH->SetBinError (i0,0);
lHUp->SetBinError (i0,0);
lHDown->SetBinError (i0,0);
lHUp1->SetBinError (i0,0);
lHDown1->SetBinError (i0,0);
}
TFile *lOutFile =new TFile("Output.root","RECREATE");
cloneFile(lOutFile,lFile,iDir+"/"+iBkg);
lOutFile->cd(iDir.c_str());
lH ->Write();
lHUp ->Write();
lHDown ->Write();
lHUp1 ->Write();
lHDown1->Write();
// Debug Plots
lH0->SetStats(0);
lH->SetStats(0);
lHUp->SetStats(0);
lHDown->SetStats(0);
lHUp1->SetStats(0);
lHDown1->SetStats(0);
lH0 ->SetLineWidth(1); lH0->SetMarkerStyle(kFullCircle);
lH ->SetLineColor(kGreen);
lHUp ->SetLineColor(kRed);
lHDown ->SetLineColor(kRed);
lHUp1 ->SetLineColor(kBlue);
lHDown1->SetLineColor(kBlue);
TCanvas *lC0 = new TCanvas("Can","Can",800,600);
lC0->Divide(1,2); lC0->cd(); lC0->cd(1)->SetPad(0,0.2,1.0,1.0); gPad->SetLeftMargin(0.2) ;
lH0->Draw();
lH ->Draw("hist sames");
lHUp ->Draw("hist sames");
lHDown ->Draw("hist sames");
lHUp1 ->Draw("hist sames");
lHDown1->Draw("hist sames");
gPad->SetLogy();
TLegend* leg1;
/// setup the CMS Preliminary
leg1 = new TLegend(0.7, 0.80, 1, 1);
leg1->SetBorderSize( 0 );
leg1->SetFillStyle ( 1001 );
leg1->SetFillColor (kWhite);
leg1->AddEntry( lH0 , "orignal", "PL" );
leg1->AddEntry( lH , "cental fit", "L" );
leg1->AddEntry( lHUp , "shift1 up", "L" );
leg1->AddEntry( lHDown , "shift1 down", "L" );
leg1->AddEntry( lHUp1 , "shift2 up", "L" );
leg1->AddEntry( lHDown1 , "shift2 down", "L" );
leg1->Draw("same");
lC0->cd(2)->SetPad(0,0,1.0,0.2); gPad->SetLeftMargin(0.2) ;
drawDifference(lH0,lH,lHUp,lHDown,lHUp1,lHDown1);
lH0->SetStats(0);
lC0->Update();
lC0->SaveAs((iBkg+"_"+"CMS_"+iName+"1_" + iDir + "_" + iEnergy+".png").c_str());
//lFile->Close();
return;
}
double* fitHist(TCanvas *iC, bool iDoMu,int iPlot, std::string iName,TH1D *iData,TH1D *iW,TH1D *iEWK,TH1D *iAntiData,TH1D *iAntiW,TH1D *iAntiEWK,const Double_t METMAX,const Int_t NBINS,const Double_t lumi,const Int_t Ecm,int iAltQCD) {
//
// Declare fit parameters for signal and background yields
// Note: W signal and EWK+top PDFs are constrained to the ratio described in MC
//
RooRealVar nSig(("nSig"+iName).c_str(),("nSig"+iName).c_str(),0.7*(iData->Integral()),0,iData->Integral());
RooRealVar nQCD(("nQCD"+iName).c_str(),("nQCD"+iName).c_str(),0.3*(iData->Integral()),0,iData->Integral());
RooRealVar cewk(("cewk"+iName).c_str(),("cewk"+iName).c_str(),0.1,0,5) ;
cewk.setVal(iEWK->Integral()/iW->Integral());
cewk.setConstant(kTRUE);
RooFormulaVar nEWK(("nEWK"+iName).c_str(),("nEWK"+iName).c_str(),("cewk"+iName+"*nSig"+iName).c_str(),RooArgList(nSig,cewk));
RooRealVar nAntiSig(("nAntiSig"+iName).c_str(),("nAntiSig"+iName).c_str(),0.05*(iAntiData->Integral()),0,iAntiData->Integral());
RooRealVar nAntiQCD(("nAntiQCD"+iName).c_str(),("nAntiQCD"+iName).c_str(),0.9 *(iAntiData->Integral()),0,iAntiData->Integral());
RooRealVar dewk (("dewk" +iName).c_str(),("dewk" +iName).c_str(),0.1,0,5) ;
dewk.setVal(iAntiEWK->Integral()/iAntiW->Integral());
dewk.setConstant(kTRUE);
RooFormulaVar nAntiEWK(("nAntiEWK"+iName).c_str(),("nAntiEWK"+iName).c_str(),("dewk"+iName+"*nAntiSig"+iName).c_str(),RooArgList(nAntiSig,dewk));
//
// Construct PDFs for fitting
//
RooRealVar pfmet(("pfmet"+iName).c_str(),("pfmet"+iName).c_str(),0,METMAX);
pfmet.setBins(NBINS);
// Signal PDFs
RooDataHist wMet (("wMET" +iName).c_str(), ("wMET" +iName).c_str(), RooArgSet(pfmet),iW);
RooHistPdf pdfW(( "w"+iName).c_str(), ( "w"+iName).c_str(), pfmet, wMet, 1);
RooDataHist awMet (("awMET"+iName).c_str(), ("awMET"+iName).c_str(), RooArgSet(pfmet),iAntiW);
RooHistPdf apdfW(("aw"+iName).c_str(), ("aw"+iName).c_str(), pfmet,awMet, 1);
// EWK+top PDFs
RooDataHist ewkMet (("ewkMET" +iName).c_str(),( "ewkMET"+iName).c_str(), RooArgSet(pfmet),iEWK);
RooHistPdf pdfEWK (( "ewk"+iName).c_str(),( "ewk"+iName).c_str(), pfmet,ewkMet, 1);
RooDataHist aewkMet(("aewkMET"+iName).c_str(),("aewkMET"+iName).c_str(), RooArgSet(pfmet),iAntiEWK);
RooHistPdf apdfEWK (("aewk"+iName).c_str(),("aewk"+iName).c_str(), pfmet,aewkMet, 1);
// QCD Pdfs
CPepeModel0 qcd0 (("qcd0" +iName).c_str(),pfmet);
CPepeModel1 qcd1 (("qcd1" +iName).c_str(),pfmet);
CPepeModel2 qcd2 (("qcd2" +iName).c_str(),pfmet);
CPepeModel0 aqcd0(("aqcd0"+iName).c_str(),pfmet);
CPepeModel1 aqcd1(("aqcd1"+iName).c_str(),pfmet,qcd1.sigma);
CPepeModel2 aqcd2(("aqcd2"+iName).c_str(),pfmet);
RooGenericPdf *lQCD = qcd0.model;
RooGenericPdf *lAQCD = aqcd0.model;
if(iDoMu) lQCD = qcd1.model;
if(iDoMu) lAQCD = aqcd1.model;
if(iAltQCD == 0) lQCD = qcd0.model;
if(iAltQCD == 1) lQCD = qcd1.model;
if(iAltQCD == 2) lQCD = qcd2.model;
if(iAltQCD == 0) lAQCD = aqcd0.model;
if(iAltQCD == 1) lAQCD = aqcd1.model;
if(iAltQCD == 2) lAQCD = aqcd2.model;
// Signal + Background PDFs
RooAddPdf pdfMet (("pdfMet"+iName).c_str(), ("pdfMet" +iName).c_str(), RooArgList(pdfW ,pdfEWK ,*lQCD), RooArgList(nSig,nEWK,nQCD));
RooAddPdf apdfMet(("apdfMet"+iName).c_str(),("apdfMet"+iName).c_str(), RooArgList(apdfW,apdfEWK,*lAQCD), RooArgList(nAntiSig,nAntiEWK,nAntiQCD));
// PDF for simultaneous fit
RooCategory rooCat("rooCat","rooCat");
rooCat.defineType("Select");
rooCat.defineType("Anti");
RooSimultaneous pdfTotal("pdfTotal","pdfTotal",rooCat);
pdfTotal.addPdf(pdfMet, "Select");
if(iDoMu) pdfTotal.addPdf(apdfMet,"Anti");
// Perform fits
RooDataHist dataMet (("dataMet"+iName).c_str(),("dataMet"+iName).c_str(), RooArgSet(pfmet),iData);
RooDataHist antiMet (("antiMet"+iName).c_str(),("antiMet"+iName).c_str(), RooArgSet(pfmet),iAntiData);
RooDataHist dataTotal(("data" +iName).c_str(),("data" +iName).c_str(), RooArgList(pfmet), Index(rooCat),
Import("Select", dataMet),
Import("Anti", antiMet));
RooFitResult *fitRes = 0;
bool runMinos = kTRUE;
if(iPlot == 0 || iPlot == 3) runMinos = kFALSE; //Remove Minos when running toys (too damn slow)
if(!iDoMu) fitRes = pdfMet .fitTo(dataMet ,Extended(),Minos(runMinos),Save(kTRUE));
if( iDoMu) fitRes = pdfTotal.fitTo(dataTotal,Extended(),Minos(runMinos),Save(kTRUE));
double *lResults = new double[16];
lResults[0] = nSig.getVal();
lResults[1] = nEWK.getVal();
lResults[2] = nQCD.getVal();
lResults[3] = nAntiSig.getVal();
lResults[4] = nAntiEWK.getVal();
lResults[5] = nAntiQCD.getVal();
if(!iDoMu) lResults[6] = double(qcd0.sigma->getVal());
if( iDoMu) lResults[6] = double(qcd1.sigma->getVal());
lResults[7] = 0.;
if(!iDoMu) lResults[7] = qcd1.a1->getVal();
lResults[8] = nSig .getPropagatedError(*fitRes);
lResults[9] = nEWK .getPropagatedError(*fitRes);
lResults[10] = nQCD .getPropagatedError(*fitRes);
lResults[11] = nAntiSig.getPropagatedError(*fitRes);
lResults[12] = nAntiEWK.getPropagatedError(*fitRes);
lResults[13] = nAntiQCD.getPropagatedError(*fitRes);
if( iDoMu) lResults[14] = qcd0.sigma->getError();
if(!iDoMu) lResults[14] = qcd1.sigma->getError();
if( iDoMu) lResults[15] = 0;
if(!iDoMu) lResults[15] = qcd1.a1 ->getError();
if(iPlot == 0 ) return lResults;
//
// Use histogram version of fitted PDFs to make ratio plots
// (Will also use PDF histograms later for Chi^2 and KS tests)
//
TH1D *hPdfMet = (TH1D*)(pdfMet.createHistogram(("hPdfMet"+iName).c_str(), pfmet));
hPdfMet->Scale((nSig.getVal()+nEWK.getVal()+nQCD.getVal())/hPdfMet->Integral());
TH1D *hMetDiff = makeDiffHist(iData,hPdfMet,"hMetDiff"+iName);
hMetDiff->SetMarkerStyle(kFullCircle);
hMetDiff->SetMarkerSize(0.9);
TH1D *hPdfAntiMet = (TH1D*)(apdfMet.createHistogram(("hPdfAntiMet"+iName).c_str(), pfmet));
hPdfAntiMet->Scale((nAntiSig.getVal()+nAntiEWK.getVal()+nAntiQCD.getVal())/hPdfAntiMet->Integral());
TH1D *hAntiMetDiff = makeDiffHist(iAntiData,hPdfAntiMet,"hAntiMetDiff"+iName);
hAntiMetDiff->SetMarkerStyle(kFullCircle);
hAntiMetDiff->SetMarkerSize(0.9);
if(iPlot == 3 ) {
//Build best fit QCD with default W and EWK Shap
TH1D *hPdfMetQCD = (TH1D*)(lQCD ->createHistogram(("hPdfMetQCD" +iName).c_str(), pfmet));
TH1D *hPdfAMetQCD = (TH1D*)(lAQCD->createHistogram(("hPdfAntiMetQCD"+iName).c_str(), pfmet));
hPdfMetQCD ->Scale(nQCD .getVal()/hPdfMetQCD ->Integral());
hPdfAMetQCD->Scale(nAntiQCD.getVal()/hPdfAMetQCD->Integral());
TH1D *pW = (TH1D*) iW ->Clone("WForToys");
pW ->Scale(nSig .getVal()/pW ->Integral());
TH1D *pEWK = (TH1D*) iEWK ->Clone("EWKForToys");
pEWK ->Scale(nEWK .getVal()/pEWK ->Integral());
TH1D *pAW = (TH1D*) iAntiW ->Clone("AWForToys");
pAW ->Scale(nAntiSig.getVal()/pAW ->Integral());
TH1D *pAEWK = (TH1D*) iAntiEWK->Clone("AEWKForToys");
pAEWK->Scale(nAntiEWK.getVal()/pAEWK->Integral());
hPdfMetQCD ->Add(pW);
hPdfMetQCD ->Add(pEWK);
hPdfAMetQCD->Add(pAW);
hPdfAMetQCD->Add(pAEWK);
fBestFit = hPdfMetQCD;
fAntiBestFit = hPdfAMetQCD;
return lResults;
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Make plots
//==============================================================================================================
char ylabel[100]; // string buffer for y-axis label
// file format for output plots
const TString format("png");
// label for lumi
char lumitext[100];
if(lumi<0.1) sprintf(lumitext,"%.1f pb^{-1} at #sqrt{s} = %i TeV",lumi*1000.,Ecm);
else sprintf(lumitext,"%.2f fb^{-1} at #sqrt{s} = %i TeV",lumi ,Ecm);
// plot colors
Int_t linecolorW = kOrange-3;
Int_t fillcolorW = kOrange-2;
Int_t linecolorEWK = kOrange+10;
Int_t fillcolorEWK = kOrange+7;
Int_t linecolorQCD = kViolet+2;
Int_t fillcolorQCD = kViolet-5;
Int_t ratioColor = kGray+2;
//
// Dummy histograms for TLegend
// (Nobody can figure out how to properly pass RooFit objects...)
//
TH1D *hDummyData = new TH1D("hDummyData","",0,0,10);
hDummyData->SetMarkerStyle(kFullCircle);
hDummyData->SetMarkerSize(0.9);
TH1D *hDummyW = new TH1D("hDummyW","",0,0,10);
hDummyW->SetLineColor(linecolorW);
hDummyW->SetFillColor(fillcolorW);
hDummyW->SetFillStyle(1001);
TH1D *hDummyEWK = new TH1D("hDummyEWK","",0,0,10);
hDummyEWK->SetLineColor(linecolorEWK);
hDummyEWK->SetFillColor(fillcolorEWK);
hDummyEWK->SetFillStyle(1001);
TH1D *hDummyQCD = new TH1D("hDummyQCD","",0,0,10);
hDummyQCD->SetLineColor(linecolorQCD);
hDummyQCD->SetFillColor(fillcolorQCD);
hDummyQCD->SetFillStyle(1001);
//
// W MET plot
//
RooPlot *wmframe = pfmet.frame(Bins(NBINS));
dataMet.plotOn(wmframe,MarkerStyle(kFullCircle),MarkerSize(0.9),DrawOption("ZP"));
pdfMet.plotOn(wmframe,FillColor(fillcolorW),DrawOption("F"));
pdfMet.plotOn(wmframe,LineColor(linecolorW));
pdfMet.plotOn(wmframe,Components(RooArgSet(pdfEWK,*lQCD)),FillColor(fillcolorEWK),DrawOption("F"));
pdfMet.plotOn(wmframe,Components(RooArgSet(pdfEWK,*lQCD)),LineColor(linecolorEWK));
pdfMet.plotOn(wmframe,Components(RooArgSet(*lQCD)),FillColor(fillcolorQCD),DrawOption("F"));
pdfMet.plotOn(wmframe,Components(RooArgSet(*lQCD)),LineColor(linecolorQCD));
pdfMet.plotOn(wmframe,Components(RooArgSet(pdfW)),LineColor(linecolorW),LineStyle(2));
dataMet.plotOn(wmframe,MarkerStyle(kFullCircle),MarkerSize(0.9),DrawOption("ZP"));
sprintf(ylabel,"Events / %.1f GeV",iData->GetBinWidth(1));
CPlot plotMet(("fitmet"+iName).c_str(),wmframe,"","",ylabel);
plotMet.SetLegend(0.68,0.57,0.93,0.77);
plotMet.GetLegend()->AddEntry(hDummyData,"data","PL");
plotMet.GetLegend()->AddEntry(hDummyW,"W#rightarrow#mu#nu","F");
plotMet.GetLegend()->AddEntry(hDummyEWK,"EWK+t#bar{t}","F");
plotMet.GetLegend()->AddEntry(hDummyQCD,"QCD","F");
plotMet.AddTextBox(lumitext,0.55,0.80,0.90,0.86,0);
plotMet.AddTextBox("CMS Preliminary",0.63,0.92,0.95,0.99,0);
plotMet.SetYRange(0.1,1.1*(iData->GetMaximum()));
plotMet.Draw(iC,kFALSE,format,1);
CPlot plotMetDiff(("fitmet"+iName).c_str(),"","#slash{E}_{T} [GeV]","#chi");
plotMetDiff.AddHist1D(hMetDiff,"EX0",ratioColor);
plotMetDiff.SetYRange(-8,8);
plotMetDiff.AddLine(0, 0,METMAX, 0,kBlack,1);
plotMetDiff.AddLine(0, 5,METMAX, 5,kBlack,3);
plotMetDiff.AddLine(0,-5,METMAX,-5,kBlack,3);
plotMetDiff.Draw(iC,kTRUE,format,2);
plotMet.Draw(iC,kTRUE,format,1);
plotMet.SetName(("fitmetlog"+iName).c_str());
plotMet.SetLogy();
plotMet.SetYRange(1e-3*(iData->GetMaximum()),10*(iData->GetMaximum()));
plotMet.Draw(iC,kTRUE,format,1);
if(iDoMu) {
RooPlot *awmframe = pfmet.frame(Bins(NBINS));
antiMet.plotOn(awmframe,MarkerStyle(kFullCircle),MarkerSize(0.9),DrawOption("ZP"));
apdfMet.plotOn(awmframe,FillColor(fillcolorW),DrawOption("F"));
apdfMet.plotOn(awmframe,LineColor(linecolorW));
apdfMet.plotOn(awmframe,Components(RooArgSet(apdfEWK,*lQCD)),FillColor(fillcolorEWK),DrawOption("F"));
apdfMet.plotOn(awmframe,Components(RooArgSet(apdfEWK,*lQCD)),LineColor(linecolorEWK));
apdfMet.plotOn(awmframe,Components(RooArgSet(*lQCD)),FillColor(fillcolorQCD),DrawOption("F"));
apdfMet.plotOn(awmframe,Components(RooArgSet(*lQCD)),LineColor(linecolorQCD));
apdfMet.plotOn(awmframe,Components(RooArgSet(apdfW)),LineColor(linecolorW),LineStyle(2));
antiMet.plotOn(awmframe,MarkerStyle(kFullCircle),MarkerSize(0.9),DrawOption("ZP"));
sprintf(ylabel,"Events / %.1f GeV",iAntiData->GetBinWidth(1));
CPlot plotAntiMet(("fitantimet"+iName).c_str(),awmframe,"","",ylabel);
plotAntiMet.SetLegend(0.68,0.57,0.93,0.77);
plotAntiMet.GetLegend()->AddEntry(hDummyData,"data","PL");
plotAntiMet.GetLegend()->AddEntry(hDummyW,"W#rightarrow#mu#nu","F");
plotAntiMet.GetLegend()->AddEntry(hDummyEWK,"EWK+t#bar{t}","F");
plotAntiMet.GetLegend()->AddEntry(hDummyQCD,"QCD","F");
plotAntiMet.AddTextBox(lumitext,0.55,0.80,0.90,0.86,0);
plotAntiMet.AddTextBox("CMS Preliminary",0.63,0.92,0.95,0.99,0);
plotAntiMet.SetYRange(0.1,1.1*(iAntiData->GetMaximum()));
plotAntiMet.Draw(iC,kFALSE,format,1);
CPlot plotAntiMetDiff(("fitantimet"+iName).c_str(),"","#slash{E}_{T} [GeV]","#chi");
plotAntiMetDiff.AddHist1D(hMetDiff,"EX0",ratioColor);
plotAntiMetDiff.SetYRange(-8,8);
plotAntiMetDiff.AddLine(0, 0,METMAX, 0,kBlack,1);
plotAntiMetDiff.AddLine(0, 5,METMAX, 5,kBlack,3);
plotAntiMetDiff.AddLine(0,-5,METMAX,-5,kBlack,3);
plotAntiMetDiff.Draw(iC,kTRUE,format,2);
plotAntiMet.SetName(("fitantimetlog"+iName).c_str());
plotAntiMet.SetLogy();
plotAntiMet.SetYRange(1e-3*(iAntiData->GetMaximum()),10*(iAntiData->GetMaximum()));
plotAntiMet.Draw(iC,kTRUE,format,1);
}
if(iPlot == 1) return lResults;
ofstream txtfile;
std::string txtfName = "fitres"+iName;
if( iDoMu) txtfName + "Mu.txt";
if(!iDoMu) txtfName + "Mu.txt";
ios_base::fmtflags flags;
cout << " --- test " << iData->Integral() << " -- " << hPdfMet->Integral() << endl;
Double_t chi2prob = iData->Chi2Test(hPdfMet,"PUW");
Double_t chi2ndf = iData->Chi2Test(hPdfMet,"CHI2/NDFUW");
Double_t ksprob = iData->KolmogorovTest(hPdfMet);
Double_t ksprobpe = 1;//iData->KolmogorovTest(hPdfMet,"DX");
txtfile.open(txtfName.c_str());
assert(txtfile.is_open());
flags = txtfile.flags();
txtfile << setprecision(10);
txtfile << " *** Yields *** " << endl;
txtfile << "Selected: " << iData->Integral() << endl;
txtfile << " Signal: " << nSig.getVal() << " +/- " << nSig.getPropagatedError(*fitRes) << endl;
txtfile << " QCD: " << nQCD.getVal() << " +/- " << nQCD.getPropagatedError(*fitRes) << endl;
txtfile << " Other: " << nEWK.getVal() << " +/- " << nEWK.getPropagatedError(*fitRes) << endl;
txtfile << endl;
txtfile.flags(flags);
fitRes->printStream(txtfile,RooPrintable::kValue,RooPrintable::kVerbose);
txtfile << endl;
printCorrelations(txtfile, fitRes);
txtfile << endl;
printChi2AndKSResults(txtfile, chi2prob, chi2ndf, ksprob, ksprobpe);
txtfile.close();
return lResults;
}
void addNuisance(std::string iFileName,std::string iChannel,std::string iBkg,std::string iEnergy,std::string iName,std::string iDir,bool iRebin=true,bool iVarBin=false,int iFitModel=1,double iFirst=150,double iLast=1500) {
std::cout << "======> " << iDir << "/" << iBkg << " -- " << iFileName << std::endl;
if(iVarBin) addVarBinNuisance(iFileName,iChannel,iBkg,iEnergy,iName,iDir,iRebin,iFitModel,iFirst,iLast);
if(iVarBin) return;
TFile *lFile = new TFile(iFileName.c_str());
TH1F *lH0 = (TH1F*) lFile->Get((iDir+"/"+iBkg).c_str());
TH1F *lData = (TH1F*) lFile->Get((iDir+"/data_obs").c_str());
//Define the fit function
RooRealVar lM("m","m" ,0,5000); //lM.setBinning(lBinning);
RooRealVar lA("a","a" ,50, 0.1,100);
RooRealVar lB("b","b" ,0.0 , -10.5,10.5); //lB.setConstant(kTRUE);
RooDataHist *pH0 = new RooDataHist("Data","Data" ,RooArgList(lM),lH0);
RooGenericPdf *lFit = 0; lFit = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","exp(-m/(a+b*m))",RooArgList(lM,lA,lB));
if(iFitModel == 1) lFit = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","exp(-a*pow(m,b))",RooArgList(lM,lA,lB));
if(iFitModel == 1) {lA.setVal(0.3); lB.setVal(0.5);}
if(iFitModel == 2) lFit = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","a*exp(b*m)",RooArgList(lM,lA,lB));
if(iFitModel == 3) lFit = new RooGenericPdf("genPdf","a/pow(m,b)",RooArgList(lM,lA,lB));
RooFitResult *lRFit = 0;
double lFirst = iFirst;
double lLast = iLast;
//lRFit = lFit->chi2FitTo(*pH0,RooFit::Save(kTRUE),RooFit::Range(lFirst,lLast));
lRFit = lFit->fitTo(*pH0,RooFit::Save(kTRUE),RooFit::Range(lFirst,lLast),RooFit::Strategy(0));
TMatrixDSym lCovMatrix = lRFit->covarianceMatrix();
TMatrixD lEigVecs(2,2); lEigVecs = TMatrixDSymEigen(lCovMatrix).GetEigenVectors();
TVectorD lEigVals(2); lEigVals = TMatrixDSymEigen(lCovMatrix).GetEigenValues();
cout << " Ve---> " << lEigVecs(0,0) << " -- " << lEigVecs(1,0) << " -- " << lEigVecs(0,1) << " -- " << lEigVecs(1,1) << endl;
cout << " Co---> " << lCovMatrix(0,0) << " -- " << lCovMatrix(1,0) << " -- " << lCovMatrix(0,1) << " -- " << lCovMatrix(1,1) << endl;
double lACentral = lA.getVal();
double lBCentral = lB.getVal();
lEigVals(0) = sqrt(lEigVals(0));
lEigVals(1) = sqrt(lEigVals(1));
cout << "===> " << lEigVals(0) << " -- " << lEigVals(1) << endl;
TH1F* lH = (TH1F*) lFit->createHistogram("fit" ,lM,RooFit::Binning(lH0->GetNbinsX(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmin(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmax()));
lA.setVal(lACentral + lEigVals(0)*lEigVecs(0,0));
lB.setVal(lBCentral + lEigVals(0)*lEigVecs(1,0));
TH1F* lHUp = (TH1F*) lFit->createHistogram("Up" ,lM,RooFit::Binning(lH0->GetNbinsX(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmin(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmax()));
lA.setVal(lACentral - lEigVals(0)*lEigVecs(0,0));
lB.setVal(lBCentral - lEigVals(0)*lEigVecs(1,0));
TH1F* lHDown = (TH1F*) lFit->createHistogram("Down",lM,RooFit::Binning(lH0->GetNbinsX(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmin(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmax()));
lA.setVal(lACentral + lEigVals(1)*lEigVecs(0,1));
lB.setVal(lBCentral + lEigVals(1)*lEigVecs(1,1));
TH1F* lHUp1 = (TH1F*) lFit->createHistogram("Up1",lM,RooFit::Binning(lH0->GetNbinsX(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmin(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmax()));
lA.setVal(lACentral - lEigVals(1)*lEigVecs(0,1));
lB.setVal(lBCentral - lEigVals(1)*lEigVecs(1,1));
TH1F* lHDown1 = (TH1F*) lFit->createHistogram("Down1",lM,RooFit::Binning(lH0->GetNbinsX(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmin(),lH0->GetXaxis()->GetXmax()));
std::string lNuisance1 = iBkg+"_"+"CMS_"+iName+"1_" + iChannel + "_" + iEnergy;
std::string lNuisance2 = iBkg+"_"+"CMS_"+iName+"2_" + iChannel + "_" + iEnergy;
lHUp = merge(lNuisance1 + "Up" ,lFirst,lH0,lHUp);
lHDown = merge(lNuisance1 + "Down" ,lFirst,lH0,lHDown);
lHUp1 = merge(lNuisance2 + "Up" ,lFirst,lH0,lHUp1);
lHDown1 = merge(lNuisance2 + "Down" ,lFirst,lH0,lHDown1);
lH = merge(lH0->GetName() ,lFirst,lH0,lH);
if(iRebin) {
const int lNBins = lData->GetNbinsX();
double *lAxis = getAxis(lData);
lH0 = rebin(lH0 ,lNBins,lAxis);
lH = rebin(lH ,lNBins,lAxis);
lHUp = rebin(lHUp ,lNBins,lAxis);
lHDown = rebin(lHDown ,lNBins,lAxis);
lHUp1 = rebin(lHUp1 ,lNBins,lAxis);
lHDown1 = rebin(lHDown1,lNBins,lAxis);
}
// we dont need this bin errors since we do not use them (fit tails replaces bin-by-bin error!), therefore i set all errors to 0, this also saves us from modifying the add_bbb_error.py script in which I otherwise would have to include a option for adding bbb only in specific ranges
int lMergeBin = lH->GetXaxis()->FindBin(iFirst);
for(int i0 = lMergeBin; i0 < lH->GetNbinsX()+1; i0++){
lH->SetBinError (i0,0);
lHUp->SetBinError (i0,0);
lHDown->SetBinError (i0,0);
lHUp1->SetBinError (i0,0);
lHDown1->SetBinError (i0,0);
}
TFile *lOutFile =new TFile("Output.root","RECREATE");
cloneFile(lOutFile,lFile,iDir+"/"+iBkg);
lOutFile->cd(iDir.c_str());
lH ->Write();
lHUp ->Write();
lHDown ->Write();
lHUp1 ->Write();
lHDown1->Write();
// Debug Plots
lH0->SetStats(0);
lH->SetStats(0);
lHUp->SetStats(0);
lHDown->SetStats(0);
lHUp1->SetStats(0);
lHDown1->SetStats(0);
lH0 ->SetLineWidth(1); lH0->SetMarkerStyle(kFullCircle);
lH ->SetLineColor(kGreen);
lHUp ->SetLineColor(kRed);
lHDown ->SetLineColor(kRed);
lHUp1 ->SetLineColor(kBlue);
lHDown1->SetLineColor(kBlue);
TCanvas *lC0 = new TCanvas("Can","Can",800,600);
lC0->Divide(1,2); lC0->cd(); lC0->cd(1)->SetPad(0,0.2,1.0,1.0); gPad->SetLeftMargin(0.2) ;
lH0->Draw();
lH ->Draw("hist sames");
lHUp ->Draw("hist sames");
lHDown ->Draw("hist sames");
lHUp1 ->Draw("hist sames");
lHDown1->Draw("hist sames");
gPad->SetLogy();
TLegend* leg1;
/// setup the CMS Preliminary
leg1 = new TLegend(0.7, 0.80, 1, 1);
leg1->SetBorderSize( 0 );
leg1->SetFillStyle ( 1001 );
leg1->SetFillColor (kWhite);
leg1->AddEntry( lH0 , "orignal", "PL" );
leg1->AddEntry( lH , "cental fit", "L" );
leg1->AddEntry( lHUp , "shift1 up", "L" );
leg1->AddEntry( lHDown , "shift1 down", "L" );
leg1->AddEntry( lHUp1 , "shift2 up", "L" );
leg1->AddEntry( lHDown1 , "shift2 down", "L" );
leg1->Draw("same");
lC0->cd(2)->SetPad(0,0,1.0,0.2); gPad->SetLeftMargin(0.2) ;
drawDifference(lH0,lH,lHUp,lHDown,lHUp1,lHDown1);
lH0->SetStats(0);
lC0->Update();
lC0->SaveAs((iBkg+"_"+"CMS_"+iName+"1_" + iDir + "_" + iEnergy+".png").c_str());
//lFile->Close();
return;
}